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Research Article

Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India

View ORCID ProfileTamma A. Carleton
PNAS August 15, 2017 114 (33) 8746-8751; first published July 31, 2017; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701354114
Tamma A. Carleton
aAgricultural & Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720;
bGlobal Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
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  • ORCID record for Tamma A. Carleton
  • For correspondence: tcarleton@berkeley.edu
  1. Edited by Barry R. Bloom, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, and approved June 27, 2017 (received for review January 25, 2017)

This article has Letters. Please see:

  • Unfounded assumptions in linking crop-damaging temperature and suicide in India - December 29, 2017
  • Climate change and agricultural suicides in India - December 29, 2017
  • Analyzing Indian farmer suicide rates - December 29, 2017

See related content:

  • Suicide–temperature link in India is robust
    - Dec 29, 2017
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Significance

Suicide is a stark indicator of human hardship, yet the causes of these deaths remain understudied, particularly in developing countries. This analysis of India, where one fifth of the world’s suicides occur, demonstrates that the climate, particularly temperature, has strong influence over a growing suicide epidemic. With 47 y of suicide records and climate data, I show that high temperatures increase suicide rates, but only during India’s growing season, when heat also reduces crop yields. My results are consistent with widely cited theories of economic suicide in India. Moreover, these findings have important implications for future climate change; I estimate that warming temperature trends over the last three decades have already been responsible for over 59,000 suicides throughout India.

Abstract

More than three quarters of the world’s suicides occur in developing countries, yet little is known about the drivers of suicidal behavior in poor populations. I study India, where one fifth of global suicides occur and suicide rates have doubled since 1980. Using nationally comprehensive panel data over 47 y, I demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, particularly temperature, significantly influence suicide rates. For temperatures above 20 °C, a 1 °C increase in a single day’s temperature causes ∼70 suicides, on average. This effect occurs only during India’s agricultural growing season, when heat also lowers crop yields. I find no evidence that acclimatization, rising incomes, or other unobserved drivers of adaptation are occurring. I estimate that warming over the last 30 y is responsible for 59,300 suicides in India, accounting for 6.8% of the total upward trend. These results deliver large-scale quantitative evidence linking climate and agricultural income to self-harm in a developing country.

  • climate
  • suicide
  • agriculture
  • weather impacts
  • India

Footnotes

  • ↵1Email: tcarleton{at}berkeley.edu.
  • Author contributions: T.A.C. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.

  • The author declares no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1701354114/-/DCSupplemental.

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Crop-damaging temperatures raise suicide in India
Tamma A. Carleton
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2017, 114 (33) 8746-8751; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701354114

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Crop-damaging temperatures raise suicide in India
Tamma A. Carleton
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Aug 2017, 114 (33) 8746-8751; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701354114
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