Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

^aSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
^bNational Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China;
^cKey Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095;
^dJiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095;
^eJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095;
^fAgricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611;
^gKey Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;
^hCenter for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;
ⁱDepartment of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
^jState Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China;
^kDesertification Research Centre, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy;
^lLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Le Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, CNRS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France;
^mUnité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, CS 80006, 86600 Lusignan, France;
ⁿUniversity of Chicago Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637;
^oColumbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025;
^pInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn 53115, Germany;
^qLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany;
^rDepartment of Biology, University of Antwerp, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium;
^sInternational Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, 4031 Laguna, Philippines;
^tAgro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
^uUMR Laboratoire d’Ecophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress Environementaux, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Montpellier SupAgro, 34060 Montpellier, France;
^vClimate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;
^wCentre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Cerdanyola del Valles, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain;
^xGlobal Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193, Catalonia, Spain;
^yNational Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025;
^zUMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et Développement Territorial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France

Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved July 10, 2017 (received for review January 31, 2017)

Footnotes

↵¹C.Z. and B.L. contributed equally to this work.
↵²To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: sasseng{at}ufl.edu or slpiao{at}pku.edu.cn.

Author contributions: C.Z., B.L., S. Piao, D.B.L., F.E., and S.A. designed research; C.Z. and B.L. performed research and analyzed data; C.Z., B.L., S. Piao, D.B.L., and S.A. wrote the paper; and X.W., D.B.L., Y.H., M.H., Y.Y., S.B., P.C., J.-L.D., J.E., F.E., I.A.J., T.L., E.L., Q.L., P.M., C.M., S. Peng, J.P., A.C.R., D. Wallach, T.W., D. Wu, Z.L., Y.Z., and Z.Z. contributed to the interpretation of the results and to the text.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114/-/DCSupplemental.

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	Abstract	Full	Pdf
Aug 2017	11352	356	955
Sep 2017	8395	333	563
Oct 2017	3721	131	200
Nov 2017	3334	138	181
Dec 2017	3148	76	127
Total 2017	29950	1034	2026
Jan 2018	2589	97	105
Feb 2018	1832	249	101
Mar 2018	806	827	233
Apr 2018	846	978	251
May 2018	1099	1122	218
Jun 2018	1197	1081	202
Jul 2018	1120	1043	200
Aug 2018	1644	1564	238
Sep 2018	1289	1264	265
Oct 2018	230	1719	320
Nov 2018	87	1467	249
Dec 2018	85	1427	294
Total 2018	12824	12838	2676
Jan 2019	124	1783	376
Feb 2019	148	1359	278
Mar 2019	165	1445	352
Apr 2019	191	1758	387
May 2019	152	1630	328
Jun 2019	126	1332	229
Jul 2019	111	1249	240
Aug 2019	132	1149	272
Sep 2019	134	1575	307
Oct 2019	192	1533	365
Nov 2019	203	1829	348
Dec 2019	152	1900	311
Total 2019	1830	18542	3793
Jan 2020	109	2257	292
Feb 2020	221	2416	294
Mar 2020	142	2557	304
Apr 2020	147	2451	385
May 2020	143	2366	385
Jun 2020	179	1897	325
Jul 2020	308	1842	323
Aug 2020	279	1575	348
Sep 2020	281	2127	388
Oct 2020	311	2823	508
Nov 2020	324	2499	419
Dec 2020	274	2116	408
Total 2020	2718	26926	4379
Jan 2021	146	866	204
Total 2021	146	866	204
Total	47468	60206	13078