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Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved July 10, 2017 (received for review January 31, 2017)
Article Figures & SI
Figures
- Fig. 1.
Mean annual temperature changes over time. (A) Historically observed temperature anomalies relative to 1961–1990 for global growing areas of four individual crops. (B) Future projected temperature changes (2071–2100 in comparison with 1981–2010 baseline) of four crop-growing areas and the globe (land and sea surface) under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Error bars represent SDs in the climate model results.
- Fig. 2.
Multimethod estimates of global crop yield changes in response to temperature increase. (A) Impacts on crop yields of a 1 °C increase in global temperature in grid-based simulations (Grid-Sim), point-based simulations (Point-Sim), field-warming experiments (Point-Obs), and statistical regressions at the country level (Regres_A) (9) and the global level (Regres_B) (8). Circles, means of estimates from each method or medians for Grid- and Point-Sim. Filled bars, means of the multimethod ensemble. Error bars show 95% CIs for individual methods (gray lines) and the ensemble of methods (black lines). (B) Projected changes in yield due to temperature changes by the end of the 21st century. CIs of 95% are given in square brackets.
- Fig. 3.
Multimethod estimates of grain yield changes with a 1 °C increase in global temperature for the five major countries producing each crop. (A) Wheat. (B) Rice. (C) Maize. (D) Soybean. Grid-Sim, Point-Sim, Point-Obs, and Regres_A are grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, field-warming experiments, and statistical regressions at the country level (Regres_A) (9), respectively. Regres_C is another regression method used at the country scale (13). Regres_D–K represents various country-level regression analyses used for specific crops or countries shown by individual labels D–K above the bars. Vertical axes show the temperature impact on crop yield in percent per degree Celsius increase. Error bars are 95% CIs. Values for error margins are not available for point-based observations for maize in China.
- Fig. 4.
Site-based multimethod ensemble of crop yield changes with 1 °C of global temperature increase. Site estimates from more than three methods are shown for wheat (A), rice (B), and maize (C) or from two methods for soybean (D). Grid-Sim, Point-Sim, and Point-Obs are grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, and field-warming experiments, respectively. Regres_L–N are site-, county- or city-scale regression analyses for specific crops shown by labels L–N next to the mean of the plotted dataset. Error bars are 95% CIs. Error bars for the Jinzhou (China) results for regression L and N were not available.
Data supplements
Supporting Information
Temperature increase reduces global yields
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