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Research Article

Geophysical potential for wind energy over the open oceans

View ORCID ProfileAnna Possner and View ORCID ProfileKen Caldeira
  1. aDepartment of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305

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PNAS October 24, 2017 114 (43) 11338-11343; first published October 9, 2017; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1705710114
Anna Possner
aDepartment of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305
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  • For correspondence: apossner@carnegiescience.edu
Ken Caldeira
aDepartment of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305
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  1. Edited by Kerry A. Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved August 30, 2017 (received for review April 5, 2017)

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Figures

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  • Fig. 1.
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    Fig. 1.

    (A) Climatology of kinetic energy extraction (KEE) rate for a globally homogeneous wind turbine density of one per 1 km2, including turbine–atmosphere interactions. (B) Annual mean kinetic energy (KE) dissipation into the boundary layer for the preindustrial climate.

  • Fig. S1.
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    Fig. S1.

    Annual climatology of 10-m wind speed for (A) the preindustrial climate and (B) a simulation including turbine–atmosphere interactions for a globally homogeneous wind turbine density of one per 1 km2.

  • Fig. S2.
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    Fig. S2.

    KEE rate ignoring turbine–atmosphere interactions computed based on preindustrial near-surface wind speed climatology shown in Fig. S1A. For the diagnostic, a homogeneous global distribution of noninteractive turbines spaced 1 km2 apart is assumed. Turbine specifications are identical to turbine settings prescribed in simulation with globally homogeneously spaced interactive turbines (i.e., turbines exerting atmospheric drag), for which the 10-m wind speed climatology is shown in Fig. S1B.

  • Fig. 2.
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    Fig. 2.

    (A) Map of wind farm locations. (B and C) Regional medians (•) and minimum–maximum ranges (lines) of annual mean kinetic energy extraction (KEE) in (B) watts meter−2 and (C) terawatts as function of wind farm area. Linear regression is fitted through the median KEE points against the common logarithm of the wind farm areas in the North Atlantic (salmon) and North America (light blue). Slopes and P values of fit are given. Precise KEE values and areas are in Table S1.

  • Fig. 3.
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    Fig. 3.

    Annual mean near-surface kinetic energy (KE) dissipation caused by drag (A) in the preindustrial climate and (B) for the largest simulated wind farm in the Atlantic with an area of 1.9 Mkm2. (C) Kinetic energy extraction (KEE) within the largest wind farm in the North Atlantic. KE extracted by wind turbines is partially compensated for by a reduction in KE dissipation into the boundary layer caused by surface drag. Surplus energy extracted locally is compensated for by a regional decrease of KE dissipation into the boundary layer outside the wind farm.

  • Fig. S3.
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    Fig. S3.

    (A, C, E, G, I, K, and M) Mean near-surface KE dissipation and (B, D, F, H, J, L, and N) KEE for all wind farm simulations not shown in Fig. 3. (A–F) Atlantic open ocean wind farms with areas of 0.07, 0.21, and 0.67 Mkm2 and (G–N) onshore wind farms in North America with areas of 0.1, 0.29, and 0.93 Mkm2. Locations of wind farms are shown in Fig. 2.

  • Fig. S4.
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    Fig. S4.

    Regional medians (•) and minimum–maximum ranges (lines) of annual mean KEE in (A) watts meter−2 and (B) terawatts. Colors correspond to largest onshore (x-axis label lnd) and open ocean (x-axis label ocn) simulated wind farm domains shown in Fig. 2A. Open ocean and onshore wind areas vary slightly in latitude as explained in Methodology. These simulations have an effective turbine spacing of four times the turbine blade diameter (x-axis label 4D). Increasing the interturbine spacing to more realistic spacing of 10 times the turbine blade diameter (x-axis label 10D) reduces the mean extracted power by 31% over the ocean and 51% on land.

  • Fig. S5.
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    Fig. S5.

    Time series of annual mean total near-surface dissipation of KE determined as the summed dissipation of KEE by the wind turbines and dissipation caused by surface drag. Reference climate time series (black line) shows surface dissipation only (KEE caused by wind turbines is 0 TW). Colors of wind farm simulations correspond to wind farm areas shown in Fig. 2.

  • Fig. 4.
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    Fig. 4.

    Seasonal variability for open ocean wind farms in the North Atlantic. Colors correspond to different wind farm areas as shown in Fig. 2A. Wind farm areas increase as color changes from brown to red tones. Gray hatching indicates rate of Kinetic energy extraction (KEE) required to meet monthly mean electricity demand of the European Union (0.3–0.4 TW) scaled to wind farm size.

  • Fig. S6.
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    Fig. S6.

    (A) Seasonal variability for onshore wind farms in North America (Fig. 2A shows wind farm placement). Gray hatching indicates rate of KEE required to meet monthly mean electricity demand of the European Union (0.3–0.4 TW) scaled to wind farm size. (B) Interannual KEE variability determined over a 50-y analysis period for all wind farm simulations. On interannual timescales, the relative difference between minimal and maximal extraction rates of different years is between 30 and 35%, which is consistent with variability estimates for wind energy (36) and wind speed climatologies (37).

  • Fig. 5.
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    Fig. 5.

    (A) Preindustrial surface temperature climatology. (B) Absolute mean difference in surface temperature between the simulation with the largest open ocean wind farm situated in the North Atlantic and the climatological mean. Surface temperature changes for other wind farm simulations and changes in surface precipitation and 10-m wind speed are shown in Fig. S7. All changes in surface temperature over the ocean are at the 95% significance level.

  • Fig. S7.
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    Fig. S7.

    (I–III) Preindustrial climatology of 10-m wind speed (U10m), surface temperature (Tsfc), and precipitation (P). Climatological absolute change of (A, D, G, J, M, P, S, and V) 10-m wind speed, (B, E, H, K, N, Q, T, and W) surface air temperature, and (C, F, I, L, O, R, U, and X) surface precipitation for all wind farm simulations. (A–L) Atlantic open ocean wind farms and (M–X) onshore wind farms in North America. Locations of wind farms are shown in Fig. 2, and wind farm areas are listed in Table S1.

  • Fig. S8.
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    Fig. S8.

    Absolute difference in (A) geopotential height of the 950-hPa isobar (situated around 502 ± 100 m in the preindustrial climate throughout the geographic region), (B) sea ice fraction, (C) total cloud cover, and (D) net shortwave radiation at the surface (defined as positive down; watts meter−2) between the largest open ocean wind farm simulation and the preindustrial climate. Large-scale dynamical effects resulting from the presence of giant wind farms have previously been addressed in ref. 38, where it was shown that wind farms of comparable size may induce Rossby waves in the large-scale flow in highly idealized simulations. In our case, the large surface drag in wind farms with an area exceeding 0.1 Mkm2 partially deviates the horizontal flow around the wind farm, inducing a closed cyclonic tendency to the wind field north of the wind farm and an anticyclonic tendency to the south of the wind farm in the climatological mean. In the Arctic, this leads to a dynamical sea ice feedback during the winter months, where the sea ice edge is pushed farther south.

  • Fig. S9.
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    Fig. S9.

    (A and B) Same as in Fig. 2 but for May to September averages instead of annual means. (C) Interannual variability for the May to September period only. Colors of wind farm simulations correspond to wind farm areas shown in Fig. 2. Exact values for KEE are summarized in Table S2.

  • Fig. 6.
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    Fig. 6.

    Vertical profile of the climatological mean change in horizontal wind speed averaged horizontally over the four central points of each wind farm in the North Atlantic and North America. Differences were determined between each wind farm simulation and the preindustrial climate over the 50-y analysis period. Colors correspond to wind farms shown in Fig. 2A. Colors in the brown and red spectrum correspond to ocean wind farms, and colors in the blue spectrum correspond to onshore wind farms of varied domain size.

  • Fig. S10.
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    Fig. S10.

    Median and interquartile percentiles of KEE rate (watts meter−2) against net surface heat flux (watts meter−2). Percentiles were computed for the global wind farm simulation over (A) the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (30° N to 66° N), (B) the subtropics and the tropics (30° S to 30° N), and (C) the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes (30° S to 66° S). The net heat flux is defined as positive upward. Percentiles for land and ocean points were determined separately and are shown in green and blue, respectively.

  • Fig. S11.
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    Fig. S11.

    Scaling of extracted KE as a function of the area per turbine for globally homogeneous distribution of wind turbines over the oceans. For reference, we include required KEE to generate 18 TW in the annual mean. Black line indicates perfect scaling.

Tables

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    Table S1.

    Annual mean KEE rates given for wind farms in the North Atlantic (offshore) and in North America (onshore)

    Wind farm area North America/North Atlantic (Mkm2)Grid box no.KEE North America/North Atlantic (W m−2)KEE North America/North Atlantic (TW)
    0.10/0.0793.0/12.40.3/0.9
    0.29/0.21252.6/10.40.7/2.2
    0.93/0.67812.3/8.42.1/5.7
    2.57/1.872252.1/6.75.4/12.5
    • Results are presented in watts meter−2 and terawatts for each wind farm area. Note that the discrepancy in wind farm areas between corresponding wind farms of equal numbers of grid boxes in the land and ocean arises from the small shift in latitude between the different locations.

    • View popup
    Table S2.

    May to September average KEE rates given for wind farms in the North Atlantic (offshore) and in North America (onshore)

    Wind farm area North America/North Atlantic (Mkm2)Grid box no.KEE North America/North Atlantic (W m−2)KEE North America/North Atlantic (TW)
    0.10/0.0792.2/5.10.2/0.4
    0.29/0.21251.7/4.50.5/0.9
    0.93/0.67811.4/3.71.3/2.5
    2.57/1.872251.2/3.03.2/5.7

Data supplements

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Geophysical potential for open ocean wind energy
Anna Possner, Ken Caldeira
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2017, 114 (43) 11338-11343; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1705710114

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Geophysical potential for open ocean wind energy
Anna Possner, Ken Caldeira
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2017, 114 (43) 11338-11343; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1705710114
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