Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Articles
    • Current
    • Special Feature Articles - Most Recent
    • Special Features
    • Colloquia
    • Collected Articles
    • PNAS Classics
    • List of Issues
  • Front Matter
    • Front Matter Portal
    • Journal Club
  • News
    • For the Press
    • This Week In PNAS
    • PNAS in the News
  • Podcasts
  • Authors
    • Information for Authors
    • Editorial and Journal Policies
    • Submission Procedures
    • Fees and Licenses
  • Submit
  • Submit
  • About
    • Editorial Board
    • PNAS Staff
    • FAQ
    • Accessibility Statement
    • Rights and Permissions
    • Site Map
  • Contact
  • Journal Club
  • Subscribe
    • Subscription Rates
    • Subscriptions FAQ
    • Open Access
    • Recommend PNAS to Your Librarian

User menu

  • Log in
  • My Cart

Search

  • Advanced search
Home
Home
  • Log in
  • My Cart

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Articles
    • Current
    • Special Feature Articles - Most Recent
    • Special Features
    • Colloquia
    • Collected Articles
    • PNAS Classics
    • List of Issues
  • Front Matter
    • Front Matter Portal
    • Journal Club
  • News
    • For the Press
    • This Week In PNAS
    • PNAS in the News
  • Podcasts
  • Authors
    • Information for Authors
    • Editorial and Journal Policies
    • Submission Procedures
    • Fees and Licenses
  • Submit
Research Article

Natural climate solutions

View ORCID ProfileBronson W. Griscom, Justin Adams, Peter W. Ellis, Richard A. Houghton, Guy Lomax, Daniela A. Miteva, William H. Schlesinger, David Shoch, Juha V. Siikamäki, Pete Smith, Peter Woodbury, Chris Zganjar, Allen Blackman, João Campari, Richard T. Conant, Christopher Delgado, Patricia Elias, Trisha Gopalakrishna, Marisa R. Hamsik, Mario Herrero, Joseph Kiesecker, Emily Landis, Lars Laestadius, Sara M. Leavitt, Susan Minnemeyer, Stephen Polasky, Peter Potapov, Francis E. Putz, Jonathan Sanderman, Marcel Silvius, Eva Wollenberg, and Joseph Fargione
  1. aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  2. bDepartment of Biology, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA 22807;
  3. cWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
  4. dDepartment of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210;
  5. eCary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545;
  6. fTerraCarbon LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22903;
  7. gResources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036;
  8. hInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, United Kingdom;
  9. iCollege of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1901;
  10. jMinistry of Agriculture, Government of Brazil, Brasilia 70000, Brazil;
  11. kNatural Resource Ecology Laboratory & Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499;
  12. lWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
  13. mCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia;
  14. nDepartment of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden;
  15. oDepartment of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108;
  16. pDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742;
  17. qDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8526;
  18. rWetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  19. sGund Institute for the Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405

See allHide authors and affiliations

PNAS October 31, 2017 114 (44) 11645-11650; first published October 16, 2017; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114
Bronson W. Griscom
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
bDepartment of Biology, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA 22807;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Bronson W. Griscom
  • For correspondence: bgriscom@tnc.org schlesingerw@caryinstitute.org
Justin Adams
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Peter W. Ellis
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Richard A. Houghton
cWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Guy Lomax
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Daniela A. Miteva
dDepartment of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
William H. Schlesinger
eCary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: bgriscom@tnc.org schlesingerw@caryinstitute.org
David Shoch
fTerraCarbon LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22903;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Juha V. Siikamäki
gResources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Pete Smith
hInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, Scotland, United Kingdom;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Peter Woodbury
iCollege of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1901;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Chris Zganjar
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Allen Blackman
gResources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
João Campari
jMinistry of Agriculture, Government of Brazil, Brasilia 70000, Brazil;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Richard T. Conant
kNatural Resource Ecology Laboratory & Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Christopher Delgado
lWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Patricia Elias
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Trisha Gopalakrishna
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Marisa R. Hamsik
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Mario Herrero
mCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Joseph Kiesecker
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Emily Landis
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Lars Laestadius
lWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
nDepartment of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-901 83 Umeå, Sweden;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Sara M. Leavitt
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Susan Minnemeyer
lWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Stephen Polasky
oDepartment of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Peter Potapov
pDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Francis E. Putz
qDepartment of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-8526;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jonathan Sanderman
cWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Marcel Silvius
rWetlands International, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Eva Wollenberg
sGund Institute for the Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Joseph Fargione
aThe Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  1. Contributed by William H. Schlesinger, September 5, 2017 (sent for review June 26, 2017; reviewed by Jason Funk and Will R. Turner)

  • Article
  • Figures & SI
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

Significance

Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.

Abstract

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

  • climate mitigation
  • forests
  • agriculture
  • wetlands
  • ecosystems

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: bgriscom{at}tnc.org or schlesingerw{at}caryinstitute.org.
  • Author contributions: B.W.G., J.A., P.W.E., R.A.H., G.L., D.A.M., W.H.S., D.S., J.V.S., P.S., P.W., C.Z., A.B., J.C., R.T.C., C.D., M.R.H., J.K., E.L., S.P., F.E.P., J.S., M.S., E.W., and J. Fargione designed research; B.W.G., P.W.E., R.A.H., G.L., D.A.M., W.H.S., D.S., J.V.S., P.W., C.Z., R.T.C., P.E., J.K., E.L., and J. Fargione performed research; L.L., S.M., and P.P. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; B.W.G., P.W.E., R.A.H., G.L., D.A.M., D.S., J.V.S., P.W., C.Z., T.G., M.H., S.M.L., and J. Fargione analyzed data; and B.W.G., J.A., P.W.E., G.L., D.A.M., W.H.S, D.S., P.S., P.W., C.Z., S.M.L., and J. Fargione wrote the paper.

  • Reviewers: J. Funk, Center for Carbon Removal; and W.R.T., Conservation International.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • Data deposition: A global spatial dataset of reforestation opportunities has been deposited on Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/record/883444).

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1710465114/-/DCSupplemental.

  • Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

This is an open access article distributed under the PNAS license.

View Full Text
PreviousNext
Back to top
Article Alerts
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on PNAS.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Natural climate solutions
(Your Name) has sent you a message from PNAS
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the PNAS web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Citation Tools
Natural climate solutions
Bronson W. Griscom, Justin Adams, Peter W. Ellis, Richard A. Houghton, Guy Lomax, Daniela A. Miteva, William H. Schlesinger, David Shoch, Juha V. Siikamäki, Pete Smith, Peter Woodbury, Chris Zganjar, Allen Blackman, João Campari, Richard T. Conant, Christopher Delgado, Patricia Elias, Trisha Gopalakrishna, Marisa R. Hamsik, Mario Herrero, Joseph Kiesecker, Emily Landis, Lars Laestadius, Sara M. Leavitt, Susan Minnemeyer, Stephen Polasky, Peter Potapov, Francis E. Putz, Jonathan Sanderman, Marcel Silvius, Eva Wollenberg, Joseph Fargione
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2017, 114 (44) 11645-11650; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Request Permissions
Share
Natural climate solutions
Bronson W. Griscom, Justin Adams, Peter W. Ellis, Richard A. Houghton, Guy Lomax, Daniela A. Miteva, William H. Schlesinger, David Shoch, Juha V. Siikamäki, Pete Smith, Peter Woodbury, Chris Zganjar, Allen Blackman, João Campari, Richard T. Conant, Christopher Delgado, Patricia Elias, Trisha Gopalakrishna, Marisa R. Hamsik, Mario Herrero, Joseph Kiesecker, Emily Landis, Lars Laestadius, Sara M. Leavitt, Susan Minnemeyer, Stephen Polasky, Peter Potapov, Francis E. Putz, Jonathan Sanderman, Marcel Silvius, Eva Wollenberg, Joseph Fargione
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2017, 114 (44) 11645-11650; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1710465114
del.icio.us logo Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Mendeley logo Mendeley

Article Classifications

  • Physical Sciences
  • Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
  • Social Sciences
  • Sustainability Science
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 114 (44)
Table of Contents

Submit

Sign up for Article Alerts

Jump to section

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Results and Discussion
    • Methods
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
  • Figures & SI
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF

You May Also be Interested in

Smoke emanates from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant a few days after tsunami damage
Core Concept: Muography offers a new way to see inside a multitude of objects
Muons penetrate much further than X-rays, they do essentially zero damage, and they are provided for free by the cosmos.
Image credit: Science Source/Digital Globe.
Water from a faucet fills a glass.
News Feature: How “forever chemicals” might impair the immune system
Researchers are exploring whether these ubiquitous fluorinated molecules might worsen infections or hamper vaccine effectiveness.
Image credit: Shutterstock/Dmitry Naumov.
Venus flytrap captures a fly.
Journal Club: Venus flytrap mechanism could shed light on how plants sense touch
One protein seems to play a key role in touch sensitivity for flytraps and other meat-eating plants.
Image credit: Shutterstock/Kuttelvaserova Stuchelova.
Illustration of groups of people chatting
Exploring the length of human conversations
Adam Mastroianni and Daniel Gilbert explore why conversations almost never end when people want them to.
Listen
Past PodcastsSubscribe
Horse fossil
Mounted horseback riding in ancient China
A study uncovers early evidence of equestrianism in ancient China.
Image credit: Jian Ma.

Similar Articles

Site Logo
Powered by HighWire
  • Submit Manuscript
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • RSS Feeds
  • Email Alerts

Articles

  • Current Issue
  • Special Feature Articles – Most Recent
  • List of Issues

PNAS Portals

  • Anthropology
  • Chemistry
  • Classics
  • Front Matter
  • Physics
  • Sustainability Science
  • Teaching Resources

Information

  • Authors
  • Editorial Board
  • Reviewers
  • Subscribers
  • Librarians
  • Press
  • Cozzarelli Prize
  • Site Map
  • PNAS Updates
  • FAQs
  • Accessibility Statement
  • Rights & Permissions
  • About
  • Contact

Feedback    Privacy/Legal

Copyright © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. Online ISSN 1091-6490