Edited by Pamela A. Matson, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved October 5, 2017 (received for review May 10, 2017)
Combatting climate change will require using all available tools, especially those that contribute to other societal and economic goals, such as natural resource protection and energy security. Conserving and managing natural and agricultural lands to retain and absorb greenhouse gasses (GHGs) are tools that have not been widely integrated into climate policy. Our analysis provides a quantification of potential climate benefits from multiple land-based activities for a jurisdiction with an emissions reduction target (up to 13.3% of the cumulative reductions needed to meet the 2050 target, or nearly three-fourths of a billion metric tons of GHGs). This approach provides a model that other jurisdictions can use to evaluate emissions reductions that might be achieved from conserving and restoring natural lands.
Modeling efforts focused on future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and other sectors in California have shown varying capacities to meet the emissions reduction targets established by the state. These efforts have not included potential reductions from changes in ecosystem management, restoration, and conservation. We examine the scale of contributions from selected activities in natural and agricultural lands and assess the degree to which these actions could help the state achieve its 2030 and 2050 climate mitigation goals under alternative implementation scenarios. By 2030, an Ambitious implementation scenario could contribute as much as 147 MMTCO2e or 17.4% of the cumulative reductions needed to meet the state’s 2030 goal, greater than the individual projected contributions of four other economic sectors, including those from the industrial and agricultural sectors. On an annual basis, the Ambitious scenario could result in reductions as high as 17.9 MMTCO2e⋅y−1 or 13.4% of the state’s 2030 reduction goal. Most reductions come from changes in forest management (61% of 2050 projected cumulative reductions under the Ambitious scenario), followed by reforestation (14%), avoided conversion (11%), compost amendments to grasslands (9%), and wetland and grassland restoration (5%). Implementation of a range of land-based emissions reduction activities can materially contribute to one of the most ambitious mitigation targets globally. This study provides a flexible, dynamic framework for estimating the reductions achievable through land conservation, ecological restoration, and changes in management regimes.
Author contributions: D.R.C., D.C.M., J.M.R., and M.C.P. designed research; D.R.C., D.C.M., and J.M.R. performed research; D.R.C., D.C.M., and J.M.R. analyzed data; and D.R.C., D.C.M., J.M.R., and M.C.P. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Data deposition: All data and simulation source code are available for download through the Open Science Framework repository (https://osf.io/UHJCF/).
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1707811114/-/DCSupplemental.
This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
