Evaluating the environmental impacts of dietary recommendations

Paul Behrens, Jessica C. Kiefte-de Jong, Thijs Bosker, João F. D. Rodrigues, Arjan de Koning, and Arnold Tukker
PNAS December 19, 2017 114 (51) 13412-13417; first published December 4, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711889114

  1. Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved October 31, 2017 (received for review July 3, 2017)

Significance

Nationally recommended diets are a prominent method for informing the public on dietary choices. Although dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes, these diets make almost no reference to environmental impacts. Our study provides a comparison between the environmental impacts of average dietary intakes and a nation-specific recommended diet across 37 middle- and high-income nations. We find that following a nationally recommended diet in high-income nations results in a reduction in greenhouse gases, eutrophication, and land use. In upper-middle–income nations, we find a smaller reduction in impacts, and in lower-middle–income nations we find a substantial increase. The net result from large-scale adoption of nationally recommended diets for countries studied here results in a reduction in environmental impacts.

Abstract

Dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes. Information on diets come from many sources, with nationally recommended diets (NRDs) by governmental or similar advisory bodies the most authoritative. Little or no attention is placed on the environmental impacts within NRDs. Here we quantify the impact of nation-specific NRDs, compared with an average diet in 37 nations, representing 64% of global population. We focus on greenhouse gases (GHGs), eutrophication, and land use because these have impacts reaching or exceeding planetary boundaries. We show that compared with average diets, NRDs in high-income nations are associated with reductions in GHG, eutrophication, and land use from 13.0 to 24.8%, 9.8 to 21.3%, and 5.7 to 17.6%, respectively. In upper-middle–income nations, NRDs are associated with slight decrease in impacts of 0.8–12.2%, 7.7–19.4%, and 7.2–18.6%. In poorer middle-income nations, impacts increase by 12.4–17.0%, 24.5–31.9%, and 8.8–14.8%. The reduced environmental impact in high-income countries is driven by reductions in calories (∼54% of effect) and a change in composition (∼46%). The increased environmental impacts of NRDs in low- and middle-income nations are associated with increased intake in animal products. Uniform adoption of NRDs across these nations would result in reductions of 0.19–0.53 Gt CO2 eq⋅a−1, 4.32–10.6 Gt PO43− eq⋅a−1, and 1.5–2.8 million km2, while providing the health cobenefits of adopting an NRD. As a small number of dietary guidelines are beginning to incorporate more general environmental concerns, we anticipate that this work will provide a standardized baseline for future work to optimize recommended diets further.

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: p.a.behrens{at}luc.leidenuniv.nl.
  1. Paul Behrensa,b,1,
  2. Jessica C. Kiefte-de Jongb,c,d,
  3. Thijs Boskera,b,
  4. João F. D. Rodriguesa,
  5. Arjan de Koninga, and
  6. Arnold Tukkera,e
  1. aInstitute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, 2333 CC, Leiden, The Netherlands;
  2. bLeiden University College The Hague, 2595 DG, The Hague, The Netherlands;
  3. cDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, The Netherlands;
  4. dDepartment of Pediatrics, Erasmus Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, The Netherlands;
  5. eThe Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research TNO, 2595 DA Den Haag, The Netherlands

  1. Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved October 31, 2017 (received for review July 3, 2017)

Significance

Nationally recommended diets are a prominent method for informing the public on dietary choices. Although dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes, these diets make almost no reference to environmental impacts. Our study provides a comparison between the environmental impacts of average dietary intakes and a nation-specific recommended diet across 37 middle- and high-income nations. We find that following a nationally recommended diet in high-income nations results in a reduction in greenhouse gases, eutrophication, and land use. In upper-middle–income nations, we find a smaller reduction in impacts, and in lower-middle–income nations we find a substantial increase. The net result from large-scale adoption of nationally recommended diets for countries studied here results in a reduction in environmental impacts.

Abstract

Dietary choices drive both health and environmental outcomes. Information on diets come from many sources, with nationally recommended diets (NRDs) by governmental or similar advisory bodies the most authoritative. Little or no attention is placed on the environmental impacts within NRDs. Here we quantify the impact of nation-specific NRDs, compared with an average diet in 37 nations, representing 64% of global population. We focus on greenhouse gases (GHGs), eutrophication, and land use because these have impacts reaching or exceeding planetary boundaries. We show that compared with average diets, NRDs in high-income nations are associated with reductions in GHG, eutrophication, and land use from 13.0 to 24.8%, 9.8 to 21.3%, and 5.7 to 17.6%, respectively. In upper-middle–income nations, NRDs are associated with slight decrease in impacts of 0.8–12.2%, 7.7–19.4%, and 7.2–18.6%. In poorer middle-income nations, impacts increase by 12.4–17.0%, 24.5–31.9%, and 8.8–14.8%. The reduced environmental impact in high-income countries is driven by reductions in calories (∼54% of effect) and a change in composition (∼46%). The increased environmental impacts of NRDs in low- and middle-income nations are associated with increased intake in animal products. Uniform adoption of NRDs across these nations would result in reductions of 0.19–0.53 Gt CO2 eq⋅a−1, 4.32–10.6 Gt PO43− eq⋅a−1, and 1.5–2.8 million km2, while providing the health cobenefits of adopting an NRD. As a small number of dietary guidelines are beginning to incorporate more general environmental concerns, we anticipate that this work will provide a standardized baseline for future work to optimize recommended diets further.

  • sustainable diets
  • MRIO
  • environmental impacts
  • dietary change

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: p.a.behrens{at}luc.leidenuniv.nl.
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Environmental impacts of dietary recommendations
Paul Behrens, Jessica C. Kiefte-de Jong, Thijs Bosker, João F. D. Rodrigues, Arjan de Koning, Arnold Tukker
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2017, 114 (51) 13412-13417; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1711889114
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