Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action
- aCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, 13083-886 Campinas, SP, Brazil;
- bStockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden;
- cCoordination of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Amazonia Research, 69080-971 Manaus, AM, Brazil;
- dInternational Institute for Sustainability, 22460-320 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
- eDepartment of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, 22451-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
- fSchool of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany;
- gDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;
- hDepartment of Geography, Federal University of Acre, 69920-900 Rio Branco, AC, Brazil;
- iWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
- jCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
- kGraduate Program in Sociology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 91509-900 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil;
- lResearch and Development Coordination, Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, 12630-000 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
- mWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
- nNational Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
See allHide authors and affiliations
Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved October 1, 2018 (received for review May 8, 2018)

Online Impact
Article Information
- Published in issue November 13, 2018.
- Published first November 5, 2018.
Article Versions
- Previous version (November 5, 2018 - 11:51).
- You are viewing the most recent version of this article.
Author Information
- David M. Lapolaa,1,
- Patricia Pinhob,
- Carlos A. Quesadac,
- Bernardo B. N. Strassburgd,e,
- Anja Rammigf,
- Bart Kruijtg,
- Foster Brownh,i,
- Jean P. H. B. Omettoj,
- Adriano Premebidak,
- José A. Marengol,
- Walter Vergaram, and
- Carlos A. Nobren
- aCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, 13083-886 Campinas, SP, Brazil;
- bStockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden;
- cCoordination of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Amazonia Research, 69080-971 Manaus, AM, Brazil;
- dInternational Institute for Sustainability, 22460-320 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
- eDepartment of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, 22451-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
- fSchool of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany;
- gDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;
- hDepartment of Geography, Federal University of Acre, 69920-900 Rio Branco, AC, Brazil;
- iWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
- jCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
- kGraduate Program in Sociology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 91509-900 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil;
- lResearch and Development Coordination, Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, 12630-000 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
- mWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
- nNational Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved October 1, 2018 (received for review May 8, 2018)
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: dmlapola{at}unicamp.br.
Author contributions: D.M.L. and P.P. designed research; D.M.L., P.P., C.A.Q., and B.B.N.S. performed research; D.M.L. and B.B.N.S. analyzed data; and D.M.L., P.P., C.A.Q., B.B.N.S., A.R., B.K., F.B., J.P.H.B.O., A.P., J.A.M., W.V., and C.A.N. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1721770115/-/DCSupplemental.
Cited By...
This article has been cited by the following articles in journals that are participating in Crossref Cited-by Linking.
- Jose A. Marengo, Carlos M. Souza, Kirsten Thonicke, Chantelle Burton, Kate Halladay, Richard A. Betts, Lincoln M. Alves, Wagner R. SoaresFrontiers in Earth Science 2018 6
- Jörn P. W. Scharlemann, Rebecca C. Brock, Nicholas Balfour, Claire Brown, Neil D. Burgess, Miriam K. Guth, Daniel J. Ingram, Richard Lane, Juliette G. C. Martin, Sylvia Wicander, Valerie KaposSustainability Science 2020 15 6
- Robert Toovey Walker, Cynthia Simmons, Eugenio Arima, Yankuic Galvan-Miyoshi, Aghane Antunes, Michael Waylen, Maíra IrigarayOne Earth 2019 1 2
- Jennifer Sills, Daniel Arruda, Hugo G. Candido, Rúbia FonsecaScience 2019 365 6460
- David M. Lapola, José Maria C. da Silva, Diego R. Braga, Larissa Carpigiani, Fernanda Ogawa, Roger R. Torres, Luis C. F. Barbosa, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Carlos A. JolyConservation Biology 2020 34 2
- Wan Adibah Wan Mahari, Elfina Azwar, Yiyang Li, Yacheng Wang, Wanxi Peng, Nyuk Ling Ma, Han Yang, Jörg Rinklebe, Su Shiung Lam, Christian SonneScience of The Total Environment 2020 742
- Ritaumaria Pereira, Lisa L. Rausch, Aline Carrara, Holly K. GibbsTropical Conservation Science 2020 13
- David N. Bengston, Jason Crabtree, Teppo HujalaFutures 2020 124
- Kristofer Covey, Fiona Soper, Sunitha Pangala, Angelo Bernardino, Zoe Pagliaro, Luana Basso, Henrique Cassol, Philip Fearnside, Diego Navarrete, Sidney Novoa, Henrique Sawakuchi, Thomas Lovejoy, Jose Marengo, Carlos A. Peres, Jonathan Baillie, Paula Bernasconi, Jose Camargo, Carolina Freitas, Bruce Hoffman, Gabriela B. Nardoto, Ismael Nobre, Juan Mayorga, Rita Mesquita, Silvia Pavan, Flavia Pinto, Flavia Rocha, Ricardo de Assis Mello, Alice Thuault, Alexis Anne Bahl, Aurora ElmoreFrontiers in Forests and Global Change 2021 4
- Anderson Oliveira Latini, Daniel Paiva Silva, Fernando Mantouvane Lanza Souza, Marcela Costa Ferreira, Maíse Soares de Moura, Natália Ferreira SuarezJournal for Nature Conservation 2020 57
Article usage
Citation Manager Formats
Article Classifications
- Biological Sciences
- Environmental Sciences
- Social Sciences
- Sustainability Science
Sign up for Article Alerts
Jump to section
- Article
- Abstract
- Likelihood of a Large-Scale Climate-Driven Loss of the Amazon Forest
- Coping with the Risk of Climate-Driven Loss of Amazon Forest
- No Action/Action Later—Impacts on the Amazonian Socioeconomy
- Action Now—Mitigation
- Action Now—Adaptation
- Filling Research Gaps to Constrain the Risk
- Acknowledgments
- Footnotes
- References
- Figures & SI
- Info & Metrics