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Perspective

Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action

David M. Lapola, Patricia Pinho, Carlos A. Quesada, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Anja Rammig, Bart Kruijt, View ORCID ProfileFoster Brown, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Adriano Premebida, José A. Marengo, Walter Vergara, and View ORCID ProfileCarlos A. Nobre
  1. aCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, 13083-886 Campinas, SP, Brazil;
  2. bStockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden;
  3. cCoordination of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Amazonia Research, 69080-971 Manaus, AM, Brazil;
  4. dInternational Institute for Sustainability, 22460-320 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
  5. eDepartment of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, 22451-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
  6. fSchool of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany;
  7. gDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  8. hDepartment of Geography, Federal University of Acre, 69920-900 Rio Branco, AC, Brazil;
  9. iWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
  10. jCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
  11. kGraduate Program in Sociology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 91509-900 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil;
  12. lResearch and Development Coordination, Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, 12630-000 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
  13. mWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
  14. nNational Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

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PNAS November 13, 2018 115 (46) 11671-11679; first published November 5, 2018; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721770115
David M. Lapola
aCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, 13083-886 Campinas, SP, Brazil;
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  • For correspondence: dmlapola@unicamp.br
Patricia Pinho
bStockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden;
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Carlos A. Quesada
cCoordination of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Amazonia Research, 69080-971 Manaus, AM, Brazil;
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Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
dInternational Institute for Sustainability, 22460-320 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
eDepartment of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, 22451-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
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Anja Rammig
fSchool of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany;
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Bart Kruijt
gDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;
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Foster Brown
hDepartment of Geography, Federal University of Acre, 69920-900 Rio Branco, AC, Brazil;
iWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
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  • ORCID record for Foster Brown
Jean P. H. B. Ometto
jCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
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Adriano Premebida
kGraduate Program in Sociology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 91509-900 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil;
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José A. Marengo
lResearch and Development Coordination, Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, 12630-000 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
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Walter Vergara
mWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
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Carlos A. Nobre
nNational Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
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  • ORCID record for Carlos A. Nobre
  1. Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved October 1, 2018 (received for review May 8, 2018)

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Article Information

vol. 115 no. 46 11671-11679
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1721770115
PubMed: 
30397144

Published By: 
National Academy of Sciences
Print ISSN: 
0027-8424
Online ISSN: 
1091-6490
History: 
  • Published in issue November 13, 2018.
  • Published first November 5, 2018.

Article Versions

  • Previous version (November 5, 2018 - 11:51).
  • You are viewing the most recent version of this article.
Copyright & Usage: 
© 2018 Published under the PNAS license.

Author Information

  1. David M. Lapolaa,1,
  2. Patricia Pinhob,
  3. Carlos A. Quesadac,
  4. Bernardo B. N. Strassburgd,e,
  5. Anja Rammigf,
  6. Bart Kruijtg,
  7. Foster Brownh,i,
  8. Jean P. H. B. Omettoj,
  9. Adriano Premebidak,
  10. José A. Marengol,
  11. Walter Vergaram, and
  12. Carlos A. Nobren
  1. aCenter for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, 13083-886 Campinas, SP, Brazil;
  2. bStockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden;
  3. cCoordination of Environmental Dynamics, National Institute for Amazonia Research, 69080-971 Manaus, AM, Brazil;
  4. dInternational Institute for Sustainability, 22460-320 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
  5. eDepartment of Geography and the Environment, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, 22451-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;
  6. fSchool of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany;
  7. gDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  8. hDepartment of Geography, Federal University of Acre, 69920-900 Rio Branco, AC, Brazil;
  9. iWoods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
  10. jCenter for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
  11. kGraduate Program in Sociology, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, 91509-900 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil;
  12. lResearch and Development Coordination, Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, 12630-000 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil;
  13. mWorld Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
  14. nNational Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
  1. Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved October 1, 2018 (received for review May 8, 2018)

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: dmlapola{at}unicamp.br.
  • Author contributions: D.M.L. and P.P. designed research; D.M.L., P.P., C.A.Q., and B.B.N.S. performed research; D.M.L. and B.B.N.S. analyzed data; and D.M.L., P.P., C.A.Q., B.B.N.S., A.R., B.K., F.B., J.P.H.B.O., A.P., J.A.M., W.V., and C.A.N. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1721770115/-/DCSupplemental.

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Article usage

Article usage: November 2018 to April 2021

AbstractFullPdf
Nov 20182843479204
Dec 20183726231
Total 20183215541235
Jan 20192557843
Feb 20192424720
Mar 20192563225
Apr 20192655126
May 201921521237
Jun 20191837645
Jul 20192037642
Aug 2019366568297
Sep 201929620393
Oct 201935544281
Nov 201963574573
Dec 201937506202
Total 2019147199841984
Jan 202016661273
Feb 202011652239
Mar 202025685255
Apr 202023418155
May 202025237155
Jun 20202117385
Jul 20201621768
Aug 20201221476
Sep 20202225299
Oct 20203928390
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Dec 20203425856
Total 202030344241684
Jan 20212327967
Feb 20213721591
Mar 20215720268
Apr 20212412043
Total 2021141816269
Total5130157654172
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Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action
David M. Lapola, Patricia Pinho, Carlos A. Quesada, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Anja Rammig, Bart Kruijt, Foster Brown, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Adriano Premebida, José A. Marengo, Walter Vergara, Carlos A. Nobre
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2018, 115 (46) 11671-11679; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1721770115

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Limiting the high impacts of Amazon forest dieback with no-regrets science and policy action
David M. Lapola, Patricia Pinho, Carlos A. Quesada, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Anja Rammig, Bart Kruijt, Foster Brown, Jean P. H. B. Ometto, Adriano Premebida, José A. Marengo, Walter Vergara, Carlos A. Nobre
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2018, 115 (46) 11671-11679; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1721770115
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 115 (46)
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Likelihood of a Large-Scale Climate-Driven Loss of the Amazon Forest
    • Coping with the Risk of Climate-Driven Loss of Amazon Forest
    • No Action/Action Later—Impacts on the Amazonian Socioeconomy
    • Action Now—Mitigation
    • Action Now—Adaptation
    • Filling Research Gaps to Constrain the Risk
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
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