Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates

K. D. Burke, J. W. Williams, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner
PNAS December 26, 2018 115 (52) 13288-13293; published ahead of print December 10, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809600115

  1. Edited by Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and accepted by Editorial Board Member Robert E. Dickinson November 6, 2018 (received for review June 29, 2018)

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Data supplements

  • Supporting Information

    • Download Appendix (PDF)
    • Download Movie_S01 (GIF) - CCSM Climate Analog Animation (RCP8.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP8.5 for CCSM. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced.
    • Download Movie_S02 (GIF) - HadCM Climate Analog Animation (RCP8.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP8.5 for HadCM. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced.
    • Download Movie_S03 (GIF) - GISS Climate Analog Animation (RCP8.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP8.5 for GISS. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced. No simulation of the Last Interglacial was available for GISS at time of publication.
    • Download Movie_S04 (GIF) - CCSM Climate Analog Animation (RCP4.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP4.5 for CCSM. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced.
    • Download Movie_S05 (GIF) - HadCM Climate Analog Animation (RCP4.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP4.5 for HadCM. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced.
    • Download Movie_S06 (GIF) - GISS Climate Analog Animation (RCP4.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP4.5 for GISS. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced. No simulation of the Last Interglacial was available for GISS at time of publication.
    • Download Movie_S07 (GIF) - Median Climate Analog Animation (RCP8.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP8.5 for the ensemble median. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced.
    • Download Movie_S08 (GIF) - Median Climate Analog Animation (RCP4.5). This animation shows the spatial distribution of future climate analogs under RCP4.5 for the ensemble median. Each decade from 2020 to 2280 CE is shown, and locations are color-coded according to the reference geohistorical state from which their closest climatic analog was sourced.
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Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates
K. D. Burke, J. W. Williams, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, B. L. Otto-Bliesner
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 115 (52) 13288-13293; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1809600115
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