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Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure

Quentin Hanich, Randi Rotjan, Transform Aqorau, Megan Bailey, Brooke Campbell, Noella Gray, Rebecca Gruby, John Hampton, Yoshitaka Ota, Hannah Parris, Chris Reid, U. Rashid Sumaila, and Wilf Swartz
PNAS December 26, 2018 115 (52) E12122-E12123; published ahead of print December 17, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1815600115
Quentin Hanich
aAustralian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia;bNereus Program, Seattle, WA 98105;
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  • ORCID record for Quentin Hanich
  • For correspondence: hanich@uow.edu.au
Randi Rotjan
cBiology Department, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215;
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Transform Aqorau
aAustralian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia;
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Megan Bailey
dMarine Affairs Program, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 4R2;
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Brooke Campbell
aAustralian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia;bNereus Program, Seattle, WA 98105;
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Noella Gray
eDepartment of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada N1G 2W1;
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Rebecca Gruby
fDepartment of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;
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John Hampton
gOceanic Fisheries Program, Pacific Community, 98848 Noumea, New Caledonia;
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Yoshitaka Ota
bNereus Program, Seattle, WA 98105;hSchool of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195;
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Hannah Parris
aAustralian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia;
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Chris Reid
iFisheries Development Division, Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency, Honiara, Solomon Islands;
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U. Rashid Sumaila
jInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries, Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4
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Wilf Swartz
bNereus Program, Seattle, WA 98105;jInstitute for the Oceans and Fisheries, Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4
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This article has letters. Please see:

  • The blue paradox: Preemptive overfishing in marine reserves
  • Reply to Hanich et al.: Alternate explanations for the blue paradox do not withstand statistical scrutiny
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In PNAS, McDermott et al. (1) analyze a 2014–2016 central Pacific fishing surge, focusing on the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA) inside the Kiribati exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The authors incorrectly attribute the surge to the anticipated industrial fishing closure of PIPA and describe the phenomenon as a blue paradox (i.e., an unintended negative consequence of a conservation policy). However, a broader analysis demonstrates that this surge was unrelated to the closure of PIPA and was due to a strong El Niño event that created a fishing surge across multiple EEZs and high seas, not just PIPA (2).

McDermott et al. (1) do not consider regional data that reveal confounding factors. Long-term catch …

↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: hanich{at}uow.edu.au.

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Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure
Quentin Hanich, Randi Rotjan, Transform Aqorau, Megan Bailey, Brooke Campbell, Noella Gray, Rebecca Gruby, John Hampton, Yoshitaka Ota, Hannah Parris, Chris Reid, U. Rashid Sumaila, Wilf Swartz
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 115 (52) E12122-E12123; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1815600115

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Unraveling the blue paradox: Incomplete analysis yields incorrect conclusions about Phoenix Islands Protected Area closure
Quentin Hanich, Randi Rotjan, Transform Aqorau, Megan Bailey, Brooke Campbell, Noella Gray, Rebecca Gruby, John Hampton, Yoshitaka Ota, Hannah Parris, Chris Reid, U. Rashid Sumaila, Wilf Swartz
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2018, 115 (52) E12122-E12123; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1815600115
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