Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

Jesse A. Day; Inez Fung; Weihan Liu

doi:10.1073/pnas.1715386115

New Research In

Contributed by Inez Fung, January 5, 2018 (sent for review August 31, 2017; reviewed by Robert Houze and Shang-Ping Xie)

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Suppression of convective precipitation by elevated man-made aerosols is responsible for large-scale droughts in north China - August 21, 2018

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Significance

Eastern China experienced a late-twentieth-century change in rainfall distribution known as the “South Flood–North Drought.” Permanently altered rainfall in this densely populated region would have severe humanitarian repercussions. We have developed an algorithm that identifies zonally elongated rainfall patterns related to the well-known Meiyu front (“frontal rain events”). We find that the frequency and daily accumulation of frontal rainfall have undergone significant decadal changes, while nonfrontal rainfall exhibits no trend. The partition of rainfall into frontal and nonfrontal components provides a framework for diagnosing the relative roles of global warming, aerosols, and natural variability in historical rainfall change in China. We propose that frontal rainfall has responded to the shifting East Asian jet stream, a relationship that may persist in the future.

Abstract

The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call “frontal rain events.” In spring and early summer (known as “Meiyu Season”), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951–2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the “South Flood–North Drought” pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994–2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

Eastern China receives about 60% of its precipitation from May to August via the East Asian summer monsoon. The period of peak rainfall lasting from early June to mid-July is called “Meiyu season” (literally “plum rains,” referring to the spectacular growth of plum blossoms in the region with the onset of heavy rains). During this time, persistent frontal synoptic conditions (the “Meiyu front”) favor heavy rainfall in zonal bands with a southwest–northeast tilt. The summer meteorology of Japan and Korea also features similar phenomena (the “Baiu” and “Changma,” respectively). The contribution from these frontal rain events explains the East Asian monsoon’s unique rainfall seasonality relative to other monsoon circulations (1). More generally, frontal rainfall is observed year-round due to the interplay between the East Asian tropospheric jet and Tibetan Plateau (2 ⇓–4). According to our subsequent analysis, frontal rainfall constitutes at least 50% of yearly total rainfall in much of east China (hereafter defined as the region within 105°E to 123°E and 20°N to 40°N; Fig. 1 and Fig. S5).

Fig. 1.

Climatological rainfall, frontal rainfall, and nonfrontal rainfall for the full year, pre-Meiyu (days 121 to 160), Meiyu (days 161 to 200), and post-Meiyu (days 201 to 273). Frontal rainfall consists of all rainfall falling within 4° of a frontal rain event’s axis and rainfall at any other adjacent point exceeding 10 mm⋅d−1. Nonfrontal rainfall includes all rainfall not meeting these criteria. Note that the color bar switches from 0.5 mm⋅d−1 to 1 mm⋅d−1 increments past 5 mm⋅d−1.

In this study, we analyze frontal rainfall in east China with the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm (FREDA), an algorithm that locates frontal rain events in daily precipitation maps and quantifies attributes such as their latitude and daily accumulation. We apply FREDA to Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of the Water Resources (APHRODITE) precipitation data from east China to create a catalog of all frontal rain events during 1951–2007 (20,819 d total), and we also classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal or nonfrontal. Both the dataset and algorithm are described in greater details in Materials and Methods.

The resulting dataset registers decadal changes in frontal rainfall due to its temporal extent. We investigate the “South Flood–North Drought” phenomenon reported in east China post-1980 (5 ⇓–7), as well as a reported rainfall change between the years 1980–1993 and 1994–2007 (8, 9). While several previous studies have compiled evidence of the variability of the Meiyu front on decadal and centennial time scales (10 ⇓–12), no prior catalog of frontal rainfall exists that spans multiple decades with daily resolution. We hope that our analysis can clarify the impact of external forcing such as global warming and aerosols on east China rainfall, and that historical links can be used to inform future rainfall projections for the region.

Frontal Rain Event Climatology

Seasonal Progression.

The mean yearly progression of east China precipitation during 1951–2007 is shown in Fig. 2A and can be compared with ref. 1. Abrupt shifts in rainfall and frontal rain event climatology frequently cooccur. Frontal rain events appear in all months, with maximum frequency and mean daily accumulation in late June (80%, 31 mm⋅d−1) and a minimum in January (10%, 12 mm⋅d−1). We define five periods of distinct behavior as demarcated in Fig. 2:

(i) the Spring Rains (days 61 to 120, March 2 to April 30), previously studied in ref. 13, marked by frequent but relatively weak frontal rain events (47% occurrence, 20 mm⋅d−1 mean);
(ii) pre-Meiyu season (days 121 to 160, May 1 to June 9), during which frontal rainfall and event daily accumulation steadily increase (56% occurrence, 25.5 mm⋅d−1 mean);
(iii) Meiyu season (days 161 to 200, June 10 to July 19) when a remarkable 7° northward shift in mean frontal rain event latitude occurs over the course of several weeks, and their frequency and daily accumulation peaks (66% occurrence, 28.3 mm⋅d−1 mean);
(iv) post-Meiyu season (days 201 to 273, July 20 to September 30), when frontal rain events are less common than during the Spring Rains (42% occurrence) but double fronts occur frequently (28% chance of a second front if at least one front observed); and
(v) the Fall Rains (days 274 to 320, October 1 to November 16), when mean frontal rain event latitude shifts southward from its northern maximum of 30°N, and event frequency decreases to 27%.

Fig. 2.

Climatology of east China rainfall and frontal rain events, 1951–2007, with time periods marked as follows: 1, Spring Rains; 2, pre-Meiyu; 3, Meiyu; 4, post-Meiyu; 5, Fall Rains. (A) Mean rainfall (100°E to 123°E zonal average). (B) Probability of observing a FRE at a given latitude (9-d and 2°-latitude box filter). (C) Mean frontal rain event daily accumulation (average daily accumulation of all frontal rain events within 15 d and ±2.5° of latitude). (D) Frontal rain event frequency (15-d running mean) and mean daily accumulation (average of all events within 15 d).

These time periods are chosen subjectively, but our subsequent analysis is not dependent on their exact duration. The pre-Meiyu, Meiyu, and post-Meiyu are equivalent to the three stages of Meiyu rainfall described in ref. 1. Unlike other monsoonal regions, which tend to be very dry in winter (14), east China receives about 40% of yearly precipitation between September and April. Our estimated day of onset of Meiyu season roughly matches ref. 12. The pre-Meiyu to Meiyu and Meiyu to post-Meiyu transitions both feature rapid northward migrations in preferred location of frontal rainfall (Fig. 1). During days 160 to 180, the likelihood of observing a frontal rain event maximizes between 26°N and 30°N, yet, by days 200 to 220, a local minimum exists in event frequency relative to other latitudes, and total rainfall decreases from 7.6 mm⋅d−1 to 4.1 mm⋅d−1. Maxima of frontal rain event frequency and daily accumulation are not always colocated in latitude.

Frontal rain events are generally more probable and stronger during spring than in fall. Some periods of heavy rainfall, in particular the August surge over southeastern China (>10 mm⋅d−1 around 20°N), do not correspond to a surge in frontal rain event frequency. Instead, August and September are known as the months when northwestern Pacific typhoons reach mainland China, which leave favorable rainfall conditions in their wake (15, 16). Frontal rainfall events with highest daily accumulation are found at low latitudes during October (days 270 to 300) at the peak of typhoon season (17).

Frontal Versus Nonfrontal Rainfall.

FREDA partitions daily rainfall into frontal and nonfrontal components. We envision frontal rainfall as the product of large-scale frontal convergence, while nonfrontal rainfall includes local convection, orographic rainfall, and typhoon rainfall. The fraction of annual rainfall that is frontal exceeds 60% in much of central China, reaching a maximum of 74% in Jiangxi Province (28°N, 116°E) (Fig. 1 and Fig. S5). Frontal rainfall constitutes the majority of rainfall during the pre-Meiyu and Meiyu, but not during the post-Meiyu. While frontal rainfall undergoes a dramatic seasonal northward progression from pre-Meiyu to post-Meiyu, the spatial distribution of nonfrontal rainfall remains largely the same between seasons, with a peak in July–August more typical of other monsoons (Fig. 1 and Fig. S6). Topographic features such as the south China/Qinling mountains and Sichuan Basin anchor regional maxima of nonfrontal rainfall. Frontal rainfall only constitutes a noticeable fraction of Taiwanese rainfall during the pre-Meiyu. In fact, the term Meiyu season as used in Taiwan refers to late May (12, 18), not June 10 to July 19 as in our study.

Decadal Changes

We compare the first and second halves of our record (1980–2007 versus 1951–1979) and third and fourth quarters (1994–2007 versus 1980–1993). Our results are robust to different choices of years. Spatial changes in rainfall between time periods are shown in Fig. 3, decomposed into frontal and nonfrontal rainfall changes. Fig. 4 displays the significance of changes in frontal rain event frequency, mean latitude, and mean daily accumulation between time periods. Finally, Fig. 5 shows Hovmöller plots of zonally averaged changes in total rainfall, frontal rainfall, frontal rain event frequency, and event daily accumulation.

Fig. 3.

Cumulative changes in total, frontal, and nonfrontal rainfall for full year, pre-Meiyu (days 121 to 160), Meiyu (days 161 to 200), and post-Meiyu (days 201 to 273), comparing 1980–2007 to 1951–1979 (Left) and 1994–2007 to 1980–1993 (Right). Frontal rainfall consists of all rainfall falling within 4° latitude of a frontal rain event’s axis and rainfall at any other adjacent point exceeding 10 mm⋅d−1. Nonfrontal rainfall includes all rainfall not meeting these criteria.

Fig. 4.

Significance of decadal changes in (A) frontal rain event frequency, (B) frontal rain event latitude, and (C) frontal rain event daily accumulation between decades, with comparisons marked for 1980–2007 versus 1951–1979 and 1994–2007 versus 1980–1993 for each season. The domain is east China (between 105°E to 123°E and 20°N to 40°N). Post-Meiyu statistics are calculated only using frontal rain events north of 27°N, because FREDA classifies most rainfall south of this latitude as local (Fig. 1); results remain significant even if fronts at all latitudes are included. Statistical significance is calculated with bootstrap techniques further detailed in Supporting Information.

Fig. 5.

The 15-d running mean of the change in (A and B) total rainfall, (C and D) frontal rainfall, (E and F) frontal rain event frequency, and (G and H) frontal rain event daily accumulation, zonally averaged by latitude over 110°E to 123°E, comparing years (A, C, E, and G) 1980–2007 to 1951–1979 and (B, D, F, and H) 1994–2007 to 1980–1993. All changes shown are significant at a 95% level, and significance exceeding a 99% level is contoured in gray, as calculated by a moving blocks bootstrap with block length of 2 d and 2,000 iterations. Zonal rainfall averages exclude rainfall occurring over Taiwan, because decadal changes over the island appear unrelated to those on the mainland (Fig. 3).

Years 1980–2007 Versus 1951–1979.

The changes in yearly rainfall between 1980–2007 and 1951–1979 reveal a meridional dipole between northeastern and southeastern China known as the South Flood–North Drought (Fig. 3). Pronounced regional shifts are also visible in Taiwan, South Korea, and parts of Japan. By partitioning changes into frontal and nonfrontal components, two observations can be made: (i) Frontal and nonfrontal rainfall changes are uncorrelated, and (ii) changes in total rainfall are predominantly contributed by changes in frontal rainfall, except in Taiwan. Frontal rainfall anomalies are concentrated in summer, when events are most frequent. In northeastern China, yearly rainfall totals after 1980 decreased due to a decline in frontal rainfall during the post-Meiyu (July 20 to September 30). In southeastern China, a corresponding increase in frontal rainfall during the post-Meiyu is offset by a decline in rainfall during the pre-Meiyu, such that the yearly change is not statistically significant. Instead, the seasonality of southeastern China rainfall has changed, with later pre-Meiyu onset and more intense Meiyu and post-Meiyu seasons. The decadal evolution of frontal rainfall and constancy of nonfrontal rainfall suggests that frontal rainfall has responded to variations in external forcing.

Changes in frontal rainfall can be attributed to changes in frontal rain event frequency or daily accumulation. Between 1980–2007 and 1951–1979, changes in event frequency predominate, while no significant changes in daily accumulation are found, contrary to the findings of ref. 19 (Fig. 5). The probability of observing a frontal rain event during the pre-Meiyu declined from 59.1%±2.0% to 53.0%±2.1% (P=0.020; Fig. 4), leading to a 2 mm⋅d−1 daily deficit in frontal rainfall (Fig. 5). During the post-Meiyu, the frequency of frontal rainfall in northeastern China also declined, inducing a southward shift in mean frontal rain event latitude from 30.2∘N±0.2∘ to 29.6∘N±0.2∘ (P=0.005 considering only events north of 27∘N; see Fig. 4 for justification). Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) and Anderson–Dearing (AD) tests also both confirm that the change in overall distribution of latitude is statistically significant (P<0.0011; Table S1).

In summary, the South Flood–North Drought meridional dipole resulted from changes in the frequency of frontal rainfall during the pre-Meiyu and post-Meiyu. The latter change is also manifested as a statistically significant southward shift in post-Meiyu and yearly mean frontal rain event latitude (Fig. 4).

Years 1994–2007 Versus 1980–1993.

Decadal rainfall changes between the third and fourth quarters of the record are again dominated by changes in frontal rainfall. No significant changes in frontal rain event frequency are observed. Instead we pinpoint changes in event daily accumulation as the cause of rainfall changes between 1980–1993 and 1994–2007. Frontal rain events intensified during Meiyu season (27.1±0.5 mm⋅d−1 to 29.8±0.6 mm⋅d,−1p=0.9997), particularly in southeastern China (Fig. 5D), leading to increased yearly rainfall totals south of 30°N. Again, the change in distribution is also significant (P<0.001; Table S2). The wetting of southeastern China during 1994–2007 is also reflected in a shift in Meiyu season mean frontal rain event latitude from 30.0∘N±0.2∘ to 28.9∘N±0.2∘ (P=0.0003; Fig. 4B) due to the aforementioned changes in daily accumulation.

Discussion

This work has aimed to quantify the role of frontal storms in the yearly rainfall climatology of eastern China. We have developed FREDA, a recursive image processing algorithm, to compile a 57-y daily catalog of every occurrence of frontal rainfall in eastern China and capture properties of each event such as latitude and daily accumulation. Simpler alternative metrics fail to capture key features of frontal rain event climatology (Figs. S7 and S8). In much of the region, over 50% of yearly precipitation falls as frontal rainfall. Summer rainfall stages are marked by sharp changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Frontal rainfall peaks during Meiyu season (late June), while nonfrontal rainfall peaks during post-Meiyu season (early August), suggesting different causal mechanisms.

Decadal changes in rainfall in eastern China are primarily due to changes in frontal rainfall (Fig. 3). A decrease in northeastern China frontal rain event frequency in August was the principal contributor to drought during 1980–2007 relative to 1951–1979. The start of the rainy season over the Yangtze Valley was also postponed due to a decline in frontal rain event frequency during the pre-Meiyu (May and early June). Between 1980–1993 and 1994–2007, we observed significant changes in frontal rain event daily accumulation with no significant changes in frequency.

We suggest that these two decadal changes in frontal rain event behavior may result from different causal mechanisms. Past authors have attributed decadal rainfall changes in East Asia to a combination of anthropogenic forcing (20 ⇓–22) and natural variability (23, 24). Global warming may affect the East Asian monsoon via changes in Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (6, 25) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle (26). Other authors have focused on the effect of the surge in black carbon aerosols in conjunction with Asia’s industrialization (27 ⇓–29). High concentration of particulate matter with a radius between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM₁₀) has been correlated with increased medium-to-heavy rainfall and decreased light rainfall (30, 31), possibly linked to the daily accumulation increases in 1994–2007 shown in this study.

We posit that the shifts in frontal rain event frequency and latitude over the 57-y record reflect changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, in particular, the annual cycle of the East Asian jet stream (32, 33). On paleoclimate time scales, synchronized changes in dust records and speleothems have been attributed to modulation in the East Asian jet’s summer advance (34). The observed shifts of the East Asian jet stream in the late 20th century (35) could have impacted the preferred locus of frontal rainfall.

It is essential to understand whether the South Flood–North Drought pattern will persist under 21st-century warming. A permanent change would have major humanitarian impacts on densely populated eastern China, where a sizable fraction of the population depends on agriculture for subsistence. The Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model suite in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report does not agree on the sign of future summer rainfall changes in East Asia (36). Depending on the relative roles of global warming, aerosols, and natural variability, future rainfall patterns may resemble or diverge from 20th century climatology. The projected 21st century decline in anthropogenic aerosol concentration (37) and shifts in the Northern Hemisphere jet stream (38) could leave distinct and detectable “thumbprints” on rainfall intensity and frequency changes (31, 39 ⇓–41). Understanding the specific atmospheric phenomena involved in 20th-century changes in eastern China rainfall characteristics may lead to improved projection of future precipitation in this region.

Materials and Methods

APHRODITE Rainfall.

The APHRO_MA_V1101 product from APHRODITE estimates daily accumulations of precipitation (PRECIP product) on a 0.25×∘.25∘ grid over 60°E to 150°E and 15°S to 55°N on each day from January 1, 1951 to December 31, 2007 (20,819 d total), based on a dense network of rain gauge observations provided by different national meteorological bureaus (42). Values are reported over land only. We focus on east China (105°E to 123°E and 20°N to 40°N), where frontal rain events are known to occur frequently, especially during Meiyu season (early June to late July). The network of stations remains dense (100-km to 200-km spacing) throughout the study period, such that frontal rain events are clearly resolved, and we are not concerned about potential artifacts from changes in station density or from the interpolation scheme. APHRODITE does not capture some features shown in higher-resolution Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data (12), but its temporal extent allows us here to study decadal change. We use the words “rainfall” and “precipitation” interchangeably, since most precipitation in the study region consists of rain, although snow is common in northeastern China during winter.

FREDA.

Frontal rain events are observed at all times of year in east China (105°E to 123°E and 20°N to 40°N). FREDA defines a frontal rain event as a continuous chain of longitudinal rainfall maxima in excess of 10 mm⋅d−1 spanning at least 5° of longitude (Fig. S1). On each day where a frontal rain event is present, FREDA approximates the event’s position as a straight line. A weighted linear fit is performed of the latitude of maximum rainfall at each longitude, using daily accumulation as weighting and discarding outliers far from the centroid of precipitation. This fit is then recursively repeated with an increasingly narrow window around the previous guess (Fig. S2). The algorithm is illustrated in Figs. S1–S4 and described in greater detail in ref. 43.

Once a fit is achieved, the following metrics are calculated:

(i) quality score (Q), denoting the fraction of daily total east China rainfall that falls within 2.5∘ of the best fit line (Fig. S3);
(ii) latitude, i.e., the latitude of the best fit line at 115°E;
(iii) daily accumulation, i.e., the mean daily rainfall averaged over all “frontal points” (any point along the best fit line where daily rainfall exceeds 5 mm⋅d−1);
(iv) length, i.e., the total zonal extent of frontal points (degree of longitude); and
(v) width, i.e., the mean distance between half-maxima (intmax/2) on either side of each frontal point (degree of latitude).

On some days, two frontal rain events coexist. The more intense of the two is termed “primary,” and the weaker is termed “secondary.” Secondary frontal rain events are detected by first removing all frontal rainfall associated with the primary front and rerunning the detection algorithm on a map of leftover rainfall (the exact definition of frontal rainfall is given in Frontal and Nonfrontal Rainfall). If two events coexist, conditional quality scores Q1 and Q2 are calculated. Q1 is defined as the fraction of daily east China rainfall that fell within 2.5∘ of the primary frontal rain event after removing secondary event rainfall, and vice versa for Q2.

Quality Control.

Out of 20,819 d, a frontal rain event was detected on 11,228 d. On 1,116 d, a secondary event was also detected. Subsequently, we use quality scores Q, Q1, and Q2 to identify poor fits. One of the following criteria must be met for a fit to be accepted:

i) If Q>0.6, the fit is deemed successful (7,522 d, 67.0% of total fits; Fig. S3). If Q2 is also greater than 0.6, the day will be classified as a double event day (type I double event; 232 cases); 3.1% of days where Q>0.6 also achieve Q2>0.6.
ii) If Q<0.6, the fit is discarded unless two frontal rain events are detected and conditional quality scores Q1 and Q2 both exceed 0.6. In such cases, the presence of multiple events of comparable intensity initially obscures the goodness of fit (Fig. S4). Such days are also classified as double event days (type II double event; 466 cases).

The use of conditional quality scores Q1 and Q2 adds 466 double-event fits that would otherwise have been missed due to a Q below 0.6; 33.2% of double-event days are type I (Q>0.6), and 66.8% are type II (Q<0.6) as defined above. Double frontal rain events are more common during certain months, particularly July to September. We also calculate the “Taiwan fraction” TW (percentage of daily east China rainfall falling over the island of Taiwan, 120°E to 122∘E and 22°N to 26∘N) to identify days when Taiwan receives far more rain than east China, skewing the FREDA best fit (Fig. S3). Fits on days where TW>20% are thrown out.

Frontal and Nonfrontal Rainfall.

FREDA classifies all rainfall on each day as either frontal or nonfrontal. Frontal rainfall consists of all rainfall falling within 4° of latitude of a frontal rain event axis and any other adjacent points where rainfall exceeds 10 mm⋅d−1 (Fig. S4). This partition is based on our knowledge of the physical mechanisms of rainfall in eastern China: Frontal rainfall results from large-scale convergence due to frontal conditions and the propagation of westerly storms across thousands of kilometers (2, 44), whereas nonfrontal rainfall results either from mechanisms with shorter length scales, such as convective self-buoyancy and orographic rainfall, or from the passage of typhoons. We cannot rule out that multiple mechanisms are capable of producing frontal rainfall, or that the mechanism of formation varies by season.

Acknowledgments

We thank Peter Molnar and Jinqiang Chen for their thoughtful comments. This work was supported by National Science Foundation Grants EAR-0909195 and EAR-1211925 and Department of Energy Grant DE-SC0014078. We also acknowledge National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant 40921120406 for enabling collaboration with Yanjun Cai that inspired the present work.

Footnotes

↵¹To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: jessed{at}berkeley.edu or ifung{at}berkeley.edu.

Author contributions: J.A.D. and I.F. designed research; J.A.D. performed research; J.A.D. analyzed data; I.F. contributed to interpretation of results; W.L. contributed to algorithm development; and J.A.D. wrote the paper.
Reviewers: R.H., University of Washington; and S.-P.X., University of California, San Diego.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Data deposition: The data and code reported in this paper have been deposited in the figshare database, https://figshare.com (10.6084/m9.figshare.5817156.v1, 10.6084/m9.figshare.5817168.v1, and 10.6084/m9.figshare.5817198.v1).
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1715386115/-/DCSupplemental.

Published under the PNAS license.

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2. Rosenfeld D,
3. Ding Y,
4. Leung LR,
5. Li Z
(2012) Potential aerosol indirect effects on atmospheric circulation and radiative forcing through deep convection. Geophys Res Lett 39:1–7.
OpenUrl CrossRef
↵
1. Streets DG,
2. Shindell DT,
3. Lu Z,
4. Faluvegi G
(2013) Radiative forcing due to major aerosol emitting sectors in China and India. Geophys Res Lett 40:4409–4414.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Choi YS,
2. Ho CH,
3. Kim J,
4. Gong DY,
5. Park RJ
(2008) The impact of aerosols on the summer rainfall frequency in China. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:1802–1813.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Wang Y,
2. Ma PL,
3. Jiang JH,
4. Su H,
5. Rasch PJ
(2016) Toward reconciling the influence of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases on light precipitation changes in eastern China. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:5878–5887.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Yu R,
2. Zhou T
(2007) Seasonality and three-dimensional structure of interdecadal change in the East Asian monsoon. J Clim 20:5344–5355.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Park JH,
2. An SI
(2014) Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 41:7861–7867.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Chiang JC, et al.
(2015) Role of seasonal transitions and westerly jets in East Asian paleoclimate. Quat Sci Rev 108:111–129.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Archer CL,
2. Caldeira K
(2008) Historical trends in the jet streams. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08803.
OpenUrl CrossRef
↵
1. Stocker TF, et al.
1. Christensen JH, et al.
(2011) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker TF, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 1217–1308.
↵
1. Westervelt DM,
2. Horowitz LW,
3. Naik V,
4. Mauzerall DL
(2015) Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases. Atmos Chem Phys Discuss 15:9293–9353.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Stocker T, et al.
1. Kirtman B, et al.
(2013) Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability in climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker T, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 953–1028.
↵
1. Trenberth KE,
2. Dai A,
3. Rasmussen RM,
4. Parsons DB
(2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:1205–1217.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Trenberth KE
(2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138.
OpenUrl CrossRef
↵
1. Pendergrass AG,
2. Hartmann DL
(2014) Changes in the distribution of rain frequency and intensity in response to global warming. J Clim 27:8372–8383.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Yatagai A, et al.
(2012) APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415.
OpenUrl
↵
1. Day JA
(2016) The dynamics of precipitation variability in the Asian monsoon. PhD thesis (University of California, Berkeley, CA).
↵
1. Day JA,
2. Fung I,
3. Risi C
(2015) Coupling of south and East Asian monsoon precipitation in July-August. J Clim 28:4330–4356.
OpenUrl CrossRef

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 115 (9)

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Article Classifications

Physical Sciences
Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences

[1] ↵
Ding Y,
Chan JCL
(2005) The East Asian summer monsoon: An overview. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:117–142.
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[2] Ding Y,

[3] Chan JCL

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Boos WR,
Battisti DS
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Xie SP
(2010) Large-scale dynamics of the Meiyu-Baiu Rainb and: Environmental forcing by the westerly jet. J Clim 23:113–134.
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[10] Xie SP

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Chen J,
Bordoni S
(2014) Orographic effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian summer monsoon: An energetic perspective. J Clim 27:3052–3072.
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[13] Bordoni S

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Hu ZZ
(1997) Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature. J Geophys Res 102:19403–19412.
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Ho CH
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[18] Ho CH

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Mojif Latif MW,
Chan C
Nigam S,
Zhao Y,
Zhou T
(2013) The south-flood north-drought pattern over eastern China and the drying of the Gangetic Plain. Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond, eds Ghil M, Mojif Latif MW, Chan C (World Sci, Singapore), Vol 1, pp 347–359.
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[20] Ghil M,

[21] Mojif Latif MW,

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[24] Zhao Y,

[25] Zhou T

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Wu R,
Wen Z,
Yang S,
Li Y
(2010) An interdecadal change in southern China summer rainfall around 1992/93. J Clim 23:2389–2403.
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Wang B
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Chen GTJ,
Chang CP
(2004) Research on the phenomena of Meiyu during the past quarter century: An overview. East Asian Monsoon (World Sci, Singapore), pp 357–403.

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Guo X,
Zheng J,
Hao Z
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Liu CL,
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Chen HS
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Chan JCL
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Yuan W,
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Jiang Z,
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Yang S,
Yu R
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Yu R,
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Lei Y,
Hoskins B,
Slingo J
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Hansen J,
Nazarenko L,
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(2002) Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China and India. Science 297:2250–2253.
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[97] Menon S,

[98] Hansen J,

[99] Nazarenko L,

[100] Luo Y

[101] ↵
Fan J,
Rosenfeld D,
Ding Y,
Leung LR,
Li Z
(2012) Potential aerosol indirect effects on atmospheric circulation and radiative forcing through deep convection. Geophys Res Lett 39:1–7.
OpenUrl CrossRef

[102] Fan J,

[103] Rosenfeld D,

[104] Ding Y,

[105] Leung LR,

[106] Li Z

[107] ↵
Streets DG,
Shindell DT,
Lu Z,
Faluvegi G
(2013) Radiative forcing due to major aerosol emitting sectors in China and India. Geophys Res Lett 40:4409–4414.
OpenUrl

[108] Streets DG,

[109] Shindell DT,

[110] Lu Z,

[111] Faluvegi G

[112] ↵
Choi YS,
Ho CH,
Kim J,
Gong DY,
Park RJ
(2008) The impact of aerosols on the summer rainfall frequency in China. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47:1802–1813.
OpenUrl

[113] Choi YS,

[114] Ho CH,

[115] Kim J,

[116] Gong DY,

[117] Park RJ

[118] ↵
Wang Y,
Ma PL,
Jiang JH,
Su H,
Rasch PJ
(2016) Toward reconciling the influence of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases on light precipitation changes in eastern China. J Geophys Res Atmos 121:5878–5887.
OpenUrl

[119] Wang Y,

[120] Ma PL,

[121] Jiang JH,

[122] Su H,

[123] Rasch PJ

[124] ↵
Yu R,
Zhou T
(2007) Seasonality and three-dimensional structure of interdecadal change in the East Asian monsoon. J Clim 20:5344–5355.
OpenUrl

[125] Yu R,

[126] Zhou T

[127] ↵
Park JH,
An SI
(2014) Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 41:7861–7867.
OpenUrl

[128] Park JH,

[129] An SI

[130] ↵
Chiang JC, et al.
(2015) Role of seasonal transitions and westerly jets in East Asian paleoclimate. Quat Sci Rev 108:111–129.
OpenUrl

[131] Chiang JC, et al.

[132] ↵
Archer CL,
Caldeira K
(2008) Historical trends in the jet streams. Geophys Res Lett 35:L08803.
OpenUrl CrossRef

[133] Archer CL,

[134] Caldeira K

[135] ↵
Stocker TF, et al.
Christensen JH, et al.
(2011) Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker TF, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 1217–1308.

[136] Stocker TF, et al.

[137] Christensen JH, et al.

[138] ↵
Westervelt DM,
Horowitz LW,
Naik V,
Mauzerall DL
(2015) Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases. Atmos Chem Phys Discuss 15:9293–9353.
OpenUrl

[139] Westervelt DM,

[140] Horowitz LW,

[141] Naik V,

[142] Mauzerall DL

[143] ↵
Stocker T, et al.
Kirtman B, et al.
(2013) Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability in climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed Stocker T, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 953–1028.

[144] Stocker T, et al.

[145] Kirtman B, et al.

[146] ↵
Trenberth KE,
Dai A,
Rasmussen RM,
Parsons DB
(2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:1205–1217.
OpenUrl

[147] Trenberth KE,

[148] Dai A,

[149] Rasmussen RM,

[150] Parsons DB

[151] ↵
Trenberth KE
(2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138.
OpenUrl CrossRef

[152] Trenberth KE

[153] ↵
Pendergrass AG,
Hartmann DL
(2014) Changes in the distribution of rain frequency and intensity in response to global warming. J Clim 27:8372–8383.
OpenUrl

[154] Pendergrass AG,

[155] Hartmann DL

[156] ↵
Yatagai A, et al.
(2012) APHRODITE: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415.
OpenUrl

[157] Yatagai A, et al.

[158] ↵
Day JA
(2016) The dynamics of precipitation variability in the Asian monsoon. PhD thesis (University of California, Berkeley, CA).

[159] Day JA

[160] ↵
Day JA,
Fung I,
Risi C
(2015) Coupling of south and East Asian monsoon precipitation in July-August. J Clim 28:4330–4356.
OpenUrl CrossRef

[161] Day JA,

[162] Fung I,

[163] Risi C

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Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

This article has a Letter. Please see:

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Significance

Abstract

Frontal Rain Event Climatology

Seasonal Progression.

Frontal Versus Nonfrontal Rainfall.

Decadal Changes

Years 1980–2007 Versus 1951–1979.

Years 1994–2007 Versus 1980–1993.

Discussion

Materials and Methods

APHRODITE Rainfall.

FREDA.

Quality Control.

Frontal and Nonfrontal Rainfall.

Acknowledgments

Footnotes

References

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Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951–2007

This article has a Letter. Please see:

See related content:

Significance

Abstract

Frontal Rain Event Climatology

Seasonal Progression.

Frontal Versus Nonfrontal Rainfall.

Decadal Changes

Years 1980–2007 Versus 1951–1979.

Years 1994–2007 Versus 1980–1993.

Discussion

Materials and Methods

APHRODITE Rainfall.

FREDA.

Quality Control.

Frontal and Nonfrontal Rainfall.

Acknowledgments

Footnotes

References

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