“Paleoartists” attempt to hone their craft and captivate the public even as they grapple with emerging data that alter how we see dinosaurs.
Image credit: Mark Witton.
New Research In
Physical Sciences
Featured Portals
Articles by Topic
Biological Sciences
Featured Portals
Articles by Topic
Edited by Kerry A. Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved October 11, 2019 (received for review July 17, 2019)
Significance
We present an approach to normalize hurricane damage, where damage is framed in terms of an equivalent area of total destruction. This has some advantages over customary normalization schemes, and we demonstrate that our record has reduced variance and correlates marginally better with wind speeds and pressure. That is, it allows us to better address climatic trends. We find that hurricanes are indeed becoming more damaging. The frequency of the very most damaging hurricanes has increased at a rate of 330% per century.
Abstract
Hurricanes are the most destructive natural disasters in the United States. The record of economic damage from hurricanes shows a steep positive trend dominated by increases in wealth. It is necessary to account for temporal changes in exposed wealth, in a process called normalization, before we can compare the destructiveness of recorded damaging storms from different areas and at different times. Atmospheric models predict major hurricanes to get more intense as Earth warms, and we expect this trend to eventually emerge above the natural variability in the record of normalized damage. However, the evidence for an increasing trend in normalized damage since 1900 has been controversial. In this study, we develop a record of normalized damage since 1900 based on an equivalent area of total destruction. Here, we show that this record has an improved signal-to-noise ratio over earlier normalization schemes based on calculations of present-day economic damage. Our data reveal an emergent positive trend in damage, which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming. Moreover, we show that this increasing trend in damage can also be exposed in existing normalized damage records by looking at the frequency of the largest damage events. Our record of normalized damage, framed in terms of an equivalent area of total destruction, is a more reliable measure for climate-related changes in extreme weather, and can be used for better risk assessments on hurricane disasters.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: aslak{at}nbi.ku.dk.
Author contributions: A.G. designed research; A.G. performed research; A.G. analyzed data; and A.G., P.D., and J.H.C. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no competing interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1912277116/-/DCSupplemental.
Published under the PNAS license.
Log in using your username and password
Purchase access
You may purchase access to this article. This will require you to create an account if you don't already have one.
Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018
Sign up for Article Alerts
Article Classifications
- Physical Sciences
- Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
- Social Sciences
- Economic Sciences
Jump to section
You May Also be Interested in
Coral reef bleaching frequently makes headlines, but researchers are still trying to sort out the cellular mechanisms at work.
Image credit: The Ocean Agency/XL Catlin Seaview Survey.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the first decades of the 21st century are likely to affect global sea level for centuries, and limiting long-term sea-level rise might require stringent near-term emission reductions.
Image courtesy of Lucy Reading-Ikkanda (artist).
A single formulation combining two gene therapies treated an array of age-related disorders in mice.
Image courtesy of Pixabay/Sipa.
Many ecosystems in the United States may be vulnerable to increased fire occurrence and frequency caused by invasive grasses.
Image courtesy of Pixabay/Stevepb.