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Research Article

Assessing the Russian Internet Research Agency’s impact on the political attitudes and behaviors of American Twitter users in late 2017

Christopher A. Bail, Brian Guay, Emily Maloney, Aidan Combs, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Friedolin Merhout, Deen Freelon, and View ORCID ProfileAlexander Volfovsky
  1. aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
  2. bDepartment of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
  3. cSanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
  4. dDepartment of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
  5. eDepartment of Sociology, University of Copenhagen, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark;
  6. fSchool of Media and Journalism, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599;
  7. gDepartment of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708

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PNAS January 7, 2020 117 (1) 243-250; first published November 25, 2019; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1906420116
Christopher A. Bail
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
bDepartment of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
cSanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
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  • For correspondence: christopher.bail@duke.edu
Brian Guay
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
dDepartment of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
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Emily Maloney
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
bDepartment of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
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Aidan Combs
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
bDepartment of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
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D. Sunshine Hillygus
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
cSanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
dDepartment of Political Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
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Friedolin Merhout
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
eDepartment of Sociology, University of Copenhagen, 1353 Copenhagen, Denmark;
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Deen Freelon
fSchool of Media and Journalism, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599;
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Alexander Volfovsky
aPolarization Lab, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
gDepartment of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
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  • ORCID record for Alexander Volfovsky
  1. Edited by Arild Underdal, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, and approved October 22, 2019 (received for review April 15, 2019)

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Figures

  • Fig. 1.
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    Fig. 1.

    Binomial regression model predicting interaction with Twitter accounts associated with the Russian IRA. Purple circles describe standardized point estimates, and blue lines describe 90% and 95% CIs. Survey respondents with strong ideological homophily in their Twitter network, high interest in politics, and who use Twitter more than once a day were most likely to interact with IRA accounts.

  • Fig. 2.
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    Fig. 2.

    BCF models describing the effect of interacting with Russian IRA accounts on change in political attitudes and behaviors of Republican and Democratic Twitter users who responded to 2 surveys fielded between October and November 2017. Purple circles describe the average treatment effects on the treated, and blue lines describe 95% credible intervals. Interaction with IRA accounts has no significant effect on all 6 outcomes.

  • Fig. 3.
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    Fig. 3.

    Individual effects of interacting with Russian IRA accounts on political attitudes and behavior by level of news interest using BCFs.

  • Fig. 4.
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    Fig. 4.

    Individual effects of interacting with Russian IRA accounts on political attitudes and behavior by frequency of Twitter usage using BCFs.

  • Fig. 5.
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    Fig. 5.

    Individual effects of interacting with Russian IRA accounts on political attitudes and behavior by partisan identification using BCFs.

  • Fig. 6.
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    Fig. 6.

    Assessing dosage effects on self-reported ideology over an extended time period. Circles describe standardized point estimates, and lines describe 95% credible intervals for different amounts of direct and indirect engagement with IRA accounts. Here, again, interactions with troll accounts over an extended period show no significant association with ideological polarization.

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Assessing the Russian Internet Research Agency’s impact on the political attitudes and behaviors of American Twitter users in late 2017
Christopher A. Bail, Brian Guay, Emily Maloney, Aidan Combs, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Friedolin Merhout, Deen Freelon, Alexander Volfovsky
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jan 2020, 117 (1) 243-250; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1906420116

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Assessing the Russian Internet Research Agency’s impact on the political attitudes and behaviors of American Twitter users in late 2017
Christopher A. Bail, Brian Guay, Emily Maloney, Aidan Combs, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Friedolin Merhout, Deen Freelon, Alexander Volfovsky
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jan 2020, 117 (1) 243-250; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1906420116
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  • Social Sciences
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  • Studying human attention on the Internet
    - Dec 17, 2019
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 117 (1)
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