Perspective

Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2 emissions

Xiaoqi Zheng, Yonglong Lu, Jingjing Yuan, Yvette Baninla, Sheng Zhang, Nils Chr. Stenseth, Dag O. Hessen, Hanqin Tian, Michael Obersteiner, and Deliang Chen
PNAS January 7, 2020 117 (1) 29-36; first published December 23, 2019; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1908513117

  1. Edited by Carl Folke, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden, and approved November 20, 2019 (received for review June 28, 2019)

Article Figures & SI

Figures

  • Fig. 1.
    Fig. 1.

    Dynamic changes in the key indexes in major countries or regions between 1978 and 2016. A shows the CO2 emissions per capita change along with GDP per capita; the trajectories are moving from left to right. In B, the EI is on the x axis, the CI is on the y axis, and the bubble size represents the PCG; the trajectories are moving from right to left and from top to bottom. The data are from the IEA (3).

  • Fig. 2.
    Fig. 2.

    Energy-related CO2 emissions in China from 1978 to 2018. The y axis plots the energy-related CO2 emissions, referring to the carbon dioxide emissions emitted from the fossil fuel combustion process. Not all of the datasets with CO2 emissions started in 1978; Shan et al. (23) calculated 2 series of CO2 emissions. Here, we selected the reference CO2 emissions (gray line). Data sources are this study (5), IEA (3), BP (25), Shan et al. (23), EDGAR (26), global carbon project (GCB) (27), and energy use (6).

  • Fig. 3.
    Fig. 3.

    Historical changes in the 4 indicators from 1978 to 2018; 1978 was used as the base year, and therefore, the value of the indicator in 1978 was set as 1. CI (orange), EI (cyan), and population size (blue) are shown on the left y axis, while PCG (purple) is shown on the right y axis.

  • Fig. 4.
    Fig. 4.

    Cumulative determinant effects of 4 indicators from 1978 to 2018. The percentages above the y axis refer to the determinant’s contributions to the changes in CO2 emissions.

  • Fig. 5.
    Fig. 5.

    Dynamic changes in the fuel mix and energy efficiency. A shows fuel mix changes in primary energy consumption in China between 1978 and 2018. B presents comparison of energy efficiency between China and major developed countries between 1978 and 2016; the energy efficiency of major countries was calculated from the data from the IEA (3).

Tables

  • Table 1.

    Key policies and cumulative determinant effects from 1978 to 2018 (million tons)

    YearPolicies or eventsNet effectCI effectEI effectPCG effectP effect
    1978–1980 (5th)1) Started reform and opening up; 2) started socialist market economy; 3) implemented executive orders on control over energy use; 4) launched family planning policy73−2−13317335
    1981–1985 (6th)1) Implemented household land contract-responsibility system; 2) established energy conservation management system3965−413695109
    1986–1990 (7th)1) Dual-pricing system-driven inflation; 2) political turmoil; 3) enacted interim regulations on energy conservation management525−3−267631164
    1991–1995 (8th)1) Strengthened reform and opening-up policy in 1992; 2) started to establish energy-saving standards739−34−7901,409155
    1996–2000 (9th)1) Shut down 15 major categories of small heavy-pollution enterprises; 2) enacted Energy Conservation Law; 3) Southeast Asia financial crisis and severe flood disasters274−86−9681,182146
    2001–2005 (10th)1) China joined the WTO; 2) Enacted medium- and long-term special plans for energy conservation; 3) launched Population and Family Planning Law2,692505571,949135
    2006–2010 (11th)1) Launched a policy package to expand domestic demand, addressing the global financial crisis; 2) listed EI as binding target for the FYP; 3) addressed Copenhagen pledge2,063−221−1,5403,644181
    2010–2015 (12th)1) China’s economy enters new normal stage; 2) 12th FYP for energy conservation and emission reduction; 3) implemented national plan on climate change (2014–2020); 4) work plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions during 12th FYP; 5) launched 2 children per household policy1,150−403−1,8533,183224
    2016–2018 (13th)1) Launched supply-side structural reform; 2) 13th FYP for energy conservation and emission reduction; 3) enhanced actions on climate change: China’s nationally determined contributions; 4) work plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions during 13th FYP362−356−1,1151,693140

    • China has released an FYP for national economic and social development every 5 y. The annual decomposition results for the 4 indicators are provided in SI Appendix, Table S3. The cumulative determinant effects reflect the performances of the macroeconomic policies launched in the FYPs.

Data supplements

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Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2 emissions
Xiaoqi Zheng, Yonglong Lu, Jingjing Yuan, Yvette Baninla, Sheng Zhang, Nils Chr. Stenseth, Dag O. Hessen, Hanqin Tian, Michael Obersteiner, Deliang Chen
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jan 2020, 117 (1) 29-36; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1908513117
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