Sanctuary policies reduce deportations without increasing crime
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Edited by Douglas S. Massey, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved September 11, 2020 (received for review July 14, 2020)

Significance
Opponents of sanctuary policies, including the federal government, assert that they harm public safety. This report shows that that claim is not supported by the evidence. This report estimates the effect of sanctuary on deportations, finding that sanctuary policies reduce deportations by one-third, but that those policies do not reduce deportations of people with violent criminal convictions. It also finds that sanctuary has no measurable effect on crime.
Abstract
The US government maintains that local sanctuary policies prevent deportations of violent criminals and increase crime. This report tests those claims by combining Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation data and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) crime data with data on the implementation dates of sanctuary policies between 2010 and 2015. Sanctuary policies reduced deportations of people who were fingerprinted by states or counties by about one-third. Those policies also changed the composition of deportations, reducing deportations of people with no criminal convictions by half—without affecting deportations of people with violent convictions. Sanctuary policies also had no detectable effect on crime rates. These findings suggest that sanctuary policies, although effective at reducing deportations, do not threaten public safety.
Footnotes
- ↵1Email: dhausman{at}stanford.edu.
Author contributions: D.K.H. designed research, performed research, analyzed data, and wrote the paper.
Competing interest statement: Until July 2019, I was an attorney at the American Civil Liberties Union’s (ACLU’s) Immigrants’ Rights Project, and I continue to consult occasionally for the ACLU and other immigrants’ rights organizations. This study is unrelated to that consulting work, but both concern immigration enforcement.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2014673117/-/DCSupplemental.
Data Availability.
All data and code necessary to replicate these findings have been deposited at Harvard Dataverse, https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NX0SAI (25).
Published under the PNAS license.
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