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Commentary

Considering network interventions

View ORCID ProfileDamon Centola
  1. aAnnenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106;
  2. bSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106;
  3. cDepartment of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106;
  4. dNetwork Dynamics Group, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106

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PNAS December 29, 2020 117 (52) 32833-32835; first published December 21, 2020; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2022584118
Damon Centola
aAnnenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106;
bSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106;
cDepartment of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106;
dNetwork Dynamics Group, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19106
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  • ORCID record for Damon Centola
  • For correspondence: dcentola@asc.upenn.edu
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One of the greatest challenges to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic is the need to develop new economic policies that steer nations safely between the Scylla of exponentially increasing infection rates and the Charybdis of a severe economic downturn. The obvious solution to curtail the rapidly increasing rate of COVID-19 infection is “lockdown”—government sanctions that limit the physical mobility of citizens within a city, region, or entire nation. However, strict lockdown policies can severely impact a wide range of economic sectors (1). Moreover, these policies can have compounding social consequences, disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and women (2). The other side of the dilemma is equally treacherous. If public policies are unable to prevent the unchecked growth of the pandemic, the disease will spread aggressively, ultimately undercutting the stability of an even wider range of economic sectors and resulting in graver social consequences (3). In PNAS, Nishi et al. (4) bravely propose a solution to this critical dilemma. Using the lockdown model as their baseline measure for an effective disease prevention strategy, Nishi et al. (4) use computational “experiments” to explore the effectiveness of adopting public health policies that might sustain normal economic activity—in schools, offices, restaurants, and supermarkets—while steering clear of the deadly consequences of unchecked disease transmission.

The Network Approach to Lockdown

The core idea behind their approach is to focus on social networks. Social contact networks are the primary pathways for the transmission of COVID-19 (5). There are several different kinds of interpersonal networks—such as intimate partner networks, family and friend networks, acquaintanceship and coworker networks, and causal/accidental contact networks (e.g., in a grocery store or a subway). All of these networks can be pathways for COVID-19 transmission. However, the likelihood of transmission increases with the duration and closeness of contact. Building on well-established social networks research on the differences between “strong ties” …

↵1Email: dcentola{at}asc.upenn.edu.

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References

  1. 1.↵
    1. Congressional Research Service
    , Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 (2020). https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R46270.pdf. Accessed 9 December 2020.
  2. 2.↵
    1. S. Singu,
    2. A. Acharya,
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    , Impact of social determinants of health on the emerging COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Front. Public Health 8, 406 (2020).
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    1. N. Ferguson et al
    ., “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand” (Rep. 16-03-2020, Imperial College London, London, UK, 2020).
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    1. A. Nishi et al
    ., Network interventions for managing the COVID-19 pandemic and sustaining economy. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 30285–30294 (2020).
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    1. J.-T. Brethouwer,
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    , “Stay nearby or get checked”: A Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy. Infect. Dis. Model. 6, 36–45 (2021).
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    1. M. Granovetter
    , The strength of weak ties. Am. J. Sociol. 78, 1360–1380 (1973).
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    1. N. T. J. Bailey
    , The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases and Its Application (Griffin, London, UK, 1975).
  8. 8.↵
    1. D. Centola
    , The spread of behavior in an online social network experiment. Science 329, 1194–1197 (2010).
    OpenUrlAbstract/FREE Full Text
  9. 9.↵
    1. J. A. Firth et al.; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
    , Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies. Nat. Med. 26, 1616–1622 (2020).
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  10. 10.↵
    1. P. Blau,
    2. J. E. Schwartz
    , Crosscutting Social Circles (Academic Press, Orlando, FL, 1984).
  11. 11.↵
    1. D. Centola
    , The social origins of networks and diffusion. AJS 120, 1295–1338 (2015).
    OpenUrlPubMed
  12. 12.↵
    1. V. Colizza,
    2. A. Barrat,
    3. M. Barthélemy,
    4. A. Vespignani
    , The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103, 2015–2020 (2006).
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  13. 13.↵
    1. D. Centola
    , How Behavior Spreads: The Science of Complex Contagions (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2018).
  14. 14.↵
    1. B. Wellman,
    2. S. Wortley
    , Different strokes from different folks: Community ties and social support. Am. J. Sociol. 96, 558–588 (1990).
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Considering network interventions
Damon Centola
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2020, 117 (52) 32833-32835; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2022584118

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Considering network interventions
Damon Centola
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2020, 117 (52) 32833-32835; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2022584118
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