North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years

Matthew B. Osman; Sloan Coats; Sarah B. Das; Joseph R. McConnell; Nathan Chellman

doi:10.1073/pnas.2104105118

Edited by Dim Coumou, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and approved July 21, 2021 (received for review March 2, 2021)

Significance

The North Atlantic jet stream impacts North American and European societies and is expected to be influenced by ongoing 21st-century warming. To better contextualize recently observed and model-projected jet stream changes, long-term records are required. We use insights from a state-of-the-art water isotope–enabled climate model and a compilation of ice-core records from Greenland to reconstruct mean annual North Atlantic jet stream changes back to the 8th century CE. Our reconstruction suggests that observed jet stream variations are consistent with natural variations, despite dramatic warming across recent decades. Under unabated future warming, however, a progressive migration of the jet stream northward is projected to render it distinct from natural variability by 2060 CE.

Abstract

Reconstruction of the North Atlantic jet stream (NAJ) presents a critical, albeit largely unconstrained, paleoclimatic target. Models suggest northward migration and changing variance of the NAJ under 21st-century warming scenarios, but assessing the significance of such projections is hindered by a lack of long-term observations. Here, we incorporate insights from an ensemble of last-millennium water isotope–enabled climate model simulations and a wide array of mean annual water isotope (δ18O) and annually accumulated snowfall records from Greenland ice cores to reconstruct North Atlantic zonal-mean zonal winds back to the 8th century CE. Using this reconstruction we provide preobservational constraints on both annual mean NAJ position and intensity to show that late 20th- and early 21st-century NAJ variations were likely not unique relative to natural variability. Rather, insights from our 1,250 year reconstruction highlight the overwhelming role of natural variability in thus far masking the response of midlatitude atmospheric dynamics to anthropogenic forcing, consistent with recent large-ensemble transient modeling experiments. This masking is not projected to persist under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, however, with model projected annual mean NAJ position emerging as distinct from the range of reconstructed natural variability by as early as 2060 CE.

Footnotes

↵¹To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: mattosman{at}arizona.edu.

Accepted July 21, 2021.

Author contributions: M.B.O. and S.C. designed research; M.B.O., S.C., S.B.D., J.R.M., and N.C. performed research; M.B.O. analyzed data; and M.B.O. and S.C. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no competing interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2104105118/-/DCSupplemental.

Data Availability

All new ice-core annual accumulation and water isotope time series presented herein, as well as NAJ reconstructions, are publicly available from the NOAA Paleoclimatology Data Archive (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/33773). NOAA20C (V3) and ERA20C U-wind and Z500 data are each available from https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html and https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-20c, respectively. All iCESM-LME, CMIP5, and CMIP6 U-wind, Z500, precipitation, and water isotope data are available from the NCAR Climate Data Gateway and the Earth System Grid Federation. The MATLAB code needed to reproduce the main results of this study are available at GitHub, https://github.com/mattosman/NAJ-reconstruction.

Published under the PNAS license.

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Table of Contents

Submit

[1] ↵
D. Coumou,
S. Rahmstorf
, A decade of weather extremes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2, 491 (2012).
OpenUrl

[2] D. Coumou,

[3] S. Rahmstorf

[4] ↵
P. D. Williams,
M. M. Joshi
, Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 644 (2013).
OpenUrl

[5] P. D. Williams,

[6] M. M. Joshi

[7] ↵
K. Chen,
G. G. Gawarkiewicz,
S. J. Lentz,
J. M. Bane
. Diagnosing the warming of the Northeastern U.S. Coastal Ocean in 2012: A linkage between the atmospheric jet stream variability and ocean response. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 218–227 (2014).
OpenUrl

[8] K. Chen,

[9] G. G. Gawarkiewicz,

[10] S. J. Lentz,

[11] J. M. Bane

[12] ↵
R. Hall,
R. Erdélyi,
E. Hanna,
J. M. Jones,
A. A. Scaife
. Drivers of North Atlantic Polar Front jet stream variability. Int. J. Climatol. 35, 1697–1720 (2015).
OpenUrl

[13] R. Hall,

[14] R. Erdélyi,

[15] E. Hanna,

[16] J. M. Jones,

[17] A. A. Scaife

[18] ↵
N. J. Abram et al
., Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents. Nature 536, 411–418 (2016).
OpenUrl CrossRef PubMed

[19] N. J. Abram et al

[20] ↵
V. Trouet,
F. Babst,
M. Meko
, Recent enhanced high-summer North Atlantic Jet variability emerges from three-century context. Nature Commun. 9, 180 (2018).
OpenUrl

[21] V. Trouet,

[22] F. Babst,

[23] M. Meko

[24] ↵
J. A. Francis,
S. J. Vavrus
, Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 (2012).

[25] J. A. Francis,

[26] S. J. Vavrus

[27] ↵
D. Coumou,
V. Petoukhov,
S. Rahmstorf,
S. Petri,
H. J. Schellnhuber
, Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111, 12331–12336 (2014).
OpenUrl Abstract/FREE Full Text

[28] D. Coumou,

[29] V. Petoukhov,

[30] S. Rahmstorf,

[31] S. Petri,

[32] H. J. Schellnhuber

[33] ↵
T. Woollings,
M. Blackburn
, The North Atlantic Jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns. J. Clim. 25, 886–902 (2011).
OpenUrl

[34] T. Woollings,

[35] M. Blackburn

[36] ↵
J. Cohen et al
., Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 20–29 (2020).
OpenUrl

[37] J. Cohen et al

[38] ↵
J. Cohen et al
., Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.Nat. Geosci. 7, 627 (2014).
OpenUrl CrossRef

[39] J. Cohen et al

[40] ↵
E. A. Barnes,
J. A. Screen
, The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it? Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang. 6, 277–286 (2015).
OpenUrl

[41] E. A. Barnes,

[42] J. A. Screen

[43] ↵
J. Cohen,
J. Jones
, Tropospheric precursors and stratospheric warmings. J. Clim. 24, 6562–6572 (2011).
OpenUrl

[44] J. Cohen,

[45] J. Jones

[46] ↵
T. Woollings,
C. Czuchnicki,
C. Franzke
, Twentieth century North Atlantic jet variability. Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 140, 783–791 (2014).
OpenUrl

[47] T. Woollings,

[48] C. Czuchnicki,

[49] C. Franzke

[50] ↵
T. Woollings et al
., Daily to decadal modulation of jet variability. J. Clim. 31, 1297–1314 (2017).
OpenUrl

[51] T. Woollings et al

[52] ↵
T. Woollings,
A. Hannachi,
B. Hoskins
. Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 136, 856–868 (2010).
OpenUrl

[53] T. Woollings,

[54] A. Hannachi,

[55] B. Hoskins

[56] ↵
B. M. Vinther,
K. K. Andersen,
A. W. Hansen,
T. Schmith,
P. D. Jones
, Improving the Gibraltar/Reykjavik NAO index. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, doi:10.1029/2003GL018220 (2003).
OpenUrl CrossRef

[57] B. M. Vinther,

[58] K. K. Andersen,

[59] A. W. Hansen,

[60] T. Schmith,

[61] P. D. Jones

[62] ↵
V. Trouet et al
., Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the medieval climate anomaly. Science 324, 78–80 (2009).
OpenUrl Abstract/FREE Full Text

[63] V. Trouet et al

[64] ↵
P. Ortega et al
., A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium. Nature 523, 71 (2015).
OpenUrl

[65] P. Ortega et al

[66] ↵
E. A. Barnes,
L. Polvani
, Response of the midlatitude jets, and of their variability, to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 26, 7117–7135 (2013).
OpenUrl

[67] E. A. Barnes,

[68] L. Polvani

[69] ↵
J. H. Yin
, A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18701 (2005).
OpenUrl CrossRef

[70] J. H. Yin

[71] ↵
C. Deser,
J. W. Hurrell,
A. S. Phillips
, The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections. Clim. Dyn. 49, 3141–3157 (2017).
OpenUrl

[72] C. Deser,

[73] J. W. Hurrell,

[74] A. S. Phillips

[75] ↵
G. P. Compo et al
., The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 137, 1–28 (2011).
OpenUrl

[76] G. P. Compo et al

[77] ↵
P. Poli et al
., ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the twentieth century. J. Clim. 29, 4083–4097 (2016).
OpenUrl

[78] P. Poli et al

[79] ↵
J. E. Smerdon,
A. Kaplan,
D. Chang, and
M. N. Evans
, A pseudoproxy evaluation of the CCA and RegEM methods for reconstructing climate fields of the last millennium. J. Clim. 23, 4856–4880 (2010).
OpenUrl

[80] J. E. Smerdon,

[81] A. Kaplan,

[82] D. Chang, and

[83] M. N. Evans

[84] ↵
S. Stevenson et al
., Volcanic eruption signatures in the isotope-enabled last millennium ensemble. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatology 34, 1534–1552 (2019).
OpenUrl

[85] S. Stevenson et al

[86] ↵
E. Brady et al
., The connected isotopic water cycle in the Community Earth System Model version 1. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 2547–2566 (2019).
OpenUrl CrossRef

[87] E. Brady et al

[88] ↵
J. Sjolte et al
., Solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic climate inferred from a process-based reconstruction. Clim. Past 14, 1179–1194 (2018).
OpenUrl

[89] J. Sjolte et al

[90] ↵
L. J. Gray,
T. J. Woollings,
M. Andrews,
J. Knight
, Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking. Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 142, 1890–1903 (2016).
OpenUrl

[91] L. J. Gray,

[92] T. J. Woollings,

[93] M. Andrews,

[94] J. Knight

[95] ↵
R. Thiéblemont,
K. Matthes,
N.-E. Omrani,
K. Kodera,
F. Hansen
, Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability. Nat. Commun. 6, 8268 (2015).
OpenUrl

[96] R. Thiéblemont,

[97] K. Matthes,

[98] N.-E. Omrani,

[99] K. Kodera,

[100] F. Hansen

[101] ↵
J. L. Lean
, Estimating solar irradiance since 850 CE. Earth Space Sci. 5, 133–149 (2018).
OpenUrl

[102] J. L. Lean

[103] ↵
G. Chiodo,
J. Oehrlein,
L. M. Polvani,
J. C. Fyfe,
A. K. Smith
. Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nat. Geosci. 12, 94–99 (2019).
OpenUrl

[104] G. Chiodo,

[105] J. Oehrlein,

[106] L. M. Polvani,

[107] J. C. Fyfe,

[108] A. K. Smith

[109] ↵
J. Wang et al
., Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years. Nat. Geosci. 10, 512 (2017).
OpenUrl CrossRef

[110] J. Wang et al

[111] ↵
I. R. Simpson,
C. Deser,
K. A. McKinnon,
E. A. Barnes
. Modeled and observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream and its connection to sea surface temperatures. J. Clim. 31, 8313–8338 (2018).
OpenUrl

[112] I. R. Simpson,

[113] C. Deser,

[114] K. A. McKinnon,

[115] E. A. Barnes

[116] ↵
S. Häkkinen,
P. B. Rhines,
D. L. Worthen
. Atmospheric blocking and Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability. Science 334, 655–659 (2011).
OpenUrl Abstract/FREE Full Text

[117] S. Häkkinen,

[118] P. B. Rhines,

[119] D. L. Worthen

[120] ↵
M. Sigl et al
., Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years. Nature 523, 543 (2015).
OpenUrl CrossRef PubMed

[121] M. Sigl et al

[122] ↵
S. Engler,
P. J. Werner
, Processes prior and during the early 18th century Irish famines—Weather extremes and migration. Climate 3, 1035–1056 (2015).
OpenUrl

[123] S. Engler,

[124] P. J. Werner

[125] ↵
P. D. Jones,
K. R. Briffa
, Unusual climate in Northwest Europe during the period 1730 to 1745 based on instrumental and documentary data. Clim. Chang. 79, 361–379 (2006).
OpenUrl

[126] P. D. Jones,

[127] K. R. Briffa

[128] ↵
J. Neumann,
S. Lindgrén
, Great historical events that were significantly affected by the weather: 4, The great famines in Finland and Estonia, 1695–97. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 60, 775–787 (1979).
OpenUrl

[129] J. Neumann,

[130] S. Lindgrén

[131] ↵
P. Slavin
, Climate and famines: A historical reassessment. WIREs Clim. Chang. 7, 433–447 (2016).
OpenUrl

[132] P. Slavin

[133] ↵
A. J. Dugmore et al
., Cultural adaptation, compounding vulnerabilities and conjunctures in Norse Greenland. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 3658–3663 (2012).
OpenUrl Abstract/FREE Full Text

[134] A. J. Dugmore et al

[135] ↵
J. Olsen,
N. J. Anderson,
M. F. Knudsen
. Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past 5,200 years. Nat. Geosci. 5, 808 (2012).
OpenUrl

[136] J. Olsen,

[137] N. J. Anderson,

[138] M. F. Knudsen

[139] ↵
K. E. Taylor,
R. J. Stouffer,
G. A. Meehl
. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).
OpenUrl CrossRef

[140] K. E. Taylor,

[141] R. J. Stouffer,

[142] G. A. Meehl

[143] ↵
V. Eyring et al
., Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).
OpenUrl

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