Skip to main content

Main menu

  • Home
  • Articles
    • Current
    • Special Feature Articles - Most Recent
    • Special Features
    • Colloquia
    • Collected Articles
    • PNAS Classics
    • List of Issues
  • Front Matter
    • Front Matter Portal
    • Journal Club
  • News
    • For the Press
    • This Week In PNAS
    • PNAS in the News
  • Podcasts
  • Authors
    • Information for Authors
    • Editorial and Journal Policies
    • Submission Procedures
    • Fees and Licenses
  • Submit
  • Submit
  • About
    • Editorial Board
    • PNAS Staff
    • FAQ
    • Accessibility Statement
    • Rights and Permissions
    • Site Map
  • Contact
  • Journal Club
  • Subscribe
    • Subscription Rates
    • Subscriptions FAQ
    • Open Access
    • Recommend PNAS to Your Librarian

User menu

  • Log in
  • My Cart

Search

  • Advanced search
Home
Home
  • Log in
  • My Cart

Advanced Search

  • Home
  • Articles
    • Current
    • Special Feature Articles - Most Recent
    • Special Features
    • Colloquia
    • Collected Articles
    • PNAS Classics
    • List of Issues
  • Front Matter
    • Front Matter Portal
    • Journal Club
  • News
    • For the Press
    • This Week In PNAS
    • PNAS in the News
  • Podcasts
  • Authors
    • Information for Authors
    • Editorial and Journal Policies
    • Submission Procedures
    • Fees and Licenses
  • Submit
Perspective

The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

View ORCID ProfileChristoph Heinze, View ORCID ProfileThorsten Blenckner, View ORCID ProfileHelena Martins, View ORCID ProfileDagmara Rusiecka, View ORCID ProfileRalf Döscher, View ORCID ProfileMarion Gehlen, View ORCID ProfileNicolas Gruber, View ORCID ProfileElisabeth Holland, View ORCID ProfileØystein Hov, View ORCID ProfileFortunat Joos, View ORCID ProfileJohn Brian Robin Matthews, View ORCID ProfileRolf Rødven, and Simon Wilson
  1. aGeophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
  2. bBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
  3. cStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden;
  4. dRossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden;
  5. eLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex, France;
  6. fInstitute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;
  7. gPacific Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji;
  8. hNorwegian Meteorological Institute, 0371 Oslo, Norway;
  9. iThe Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 0271 Oslo, Norway;
  10. jClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;
  11. kOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;
  12. lSchool of Architecture, Computing and Engineering, University of East London, E16 2RD, London, United Kingdom;
  13. mArctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway

See allHide authors and affiliations

PNAS March 2, 2021 118 (9) e2008478118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2008478118
Christoph Heinze
aGeophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
bBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Christoph Heinze
  • For correspondence: christoph.heinze@uib.no
Thorsten Blenckner
cStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Thorsten Blenckner
Helena Martins
dRossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Helena Martins
Dagmara Rusiecka
aGeophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
bBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Dagmara Rusiecka
Ralf Döscher
dRossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Ralf Döscher
Marion Gehlen
eLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex, France;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Marion Gehlen
Nicolas Gruber
fInstitute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zürich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Nicolas Gruber
Elisabeth Holland
gPacific Centre for the Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Elisabeth Holland
Øystein Hov
hNorwegian Meteorological Institute, 0371 Oslo, Norway;
iThe Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 0271 Oslo, Norway;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Øystein Hov
Fortunat Joos
jClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;
kOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Fortunat Joos
John Brian Robin Matthews
lSchool of Architecture, Computing and Engineering, University of East London, E16 2RD, London, United Kingdom;
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for John Brian Robin Matthews
Rolf Rødven
mArctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Rolf Rødven
Simon Wilson
mArctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Secretariat, 9296 Tromsø, Norway
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  1. Edited by David M. Karl, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, and approved December 17, 2020 (received for review July 30, 2020)

  • Article
  • Figures & SI
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF
Loading

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean’s environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.

  • ocean
  • biogeochemistry
  • climate change
  • tipping points
  • regime shifts

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: christoph.heinze{at}uib.no.
  • Author contributions: C.H., T.B., H.M., D.R., R.D., M.G., N.G., E.H., Ø.H., F.J., J.B.R.M., R.R., and S.W. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no competing interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2008478118/-/DCSupplemental.

Data Availability

There are no data underlying this work.

  • Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

View Full Text
PreviousNext
Back to top
Article Alerts
Email Article

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word on PNAS.

NOTE: We only request your email address so that the person you are recommending the page to knows that you wanted them to see it, and that it is not junk mail. We do not capture any email address.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points
(Your Name) has sent you a message from PNAS
(Your Name) thought you would like to see the PNAS web site.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Citation Tools
The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Helena Martins, Dagmara Rusiecka, Ralf Döscher, Marion Gehlen, Nicolas Gruber, Elisabeth Holland, Øystein Hov, Fortunat Joos, John Brian Robin Matthews, Rolf Rødven, Simon Wilson
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2021, 118 (9) e2008478118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
Request Permissions
Share
The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Helena Martins, Dagmara Rusiecka, Ralf Döscher, Marion Gehlen, Nicolas Gruber, Elisabeth Holland, Øystein Hov, Fortunat Joos, John Brian Robin Matthews, Rolf Rødven, Simon Wilson
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2021, 118 (9) e2008478118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008478118
del.icio.us logo Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Mendeley logo Mendeley

Article Classifications

  • Physical Sciences
  • Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
  • Biological Sciences
  • Sustainability Science
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 118 (9)
Table of Contents

Submit

Sign up for Article Alerts

Jump to section

  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Ongoing Ocean Change and Tipping Points
    • Trapped by Oceanic Time Scales
    • Mitigation Pathways to Avoid Ocean Tipping Points
    • Data Availability
    • Acknowledgments
    • Footnotes
    • References
  • Figures & SI
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF

You May Also be Interested in

Setting sun over a sun-baked dirt landscape
Core Concept: Popular integrated assessment climate policy models have key caveats
Better explicating the strengths and shortcomings of these models will help refine projections and improve transparency in the years ahead.
Image credit: Witsawat.S.
Model of the Amazon forest
News Feature: A sea in the Amazon
Did the Caribbean sweep into the western Amazon millions of years ago, shaping the region’s rich biodiversity?
Image credit: Tacio Cordeiro Bicudo (University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil), Victor Sacek (University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil), and Lucy Reading-Ikkanda (artist).
Syrian archaeological site
Journal Club: In Mesopotamia, early cities may have faltered before climate-driven collapse
Settlements 4,200 years ago may have suffered from overpopulation before drought and lower temperatures ultimately made them unsustainable.
Image credit: Andrea Ricci.
Steamboat Geyser eruption.
Eruption of Steamboat Geyser
Mara Reed and Michael Manga explore why Yellowstone's Steamboat Geyser resumed erupting in 2018.
Listen
Past PodcastsSubscribe
Birds nestling on tree branches
Parent–offspring conflict in songbird fledging
Some songbird parents might improve their own fitness by manipulating their offspring into leaving the nest early, at the cost of fledgling survival, a study finds.
Image credit: Gil Eckrich (photographer).

Similar Articles

Site Logo
Powered by HighWire
  • Submit Manuscript
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • RSS Feeds
  • Email Alerts

Articles

  • Current Issue
  • Special Feature Articles – Most Recent
  • List of Issues

PNAS Portals

  • Anthropology
  • Chemistry
  • Classics
  • Front Matter
  • Physics
  • Sustainability Science
  • Teaching Resources

Information

  • Authors
  • Editorial Board
  • Reviewers
  • Subscribers
  • Librarians
  • Press
  • Site Map
  • PNAS Updates
  • FAQs
  • Accessibility Statement
  • Rights & Permissions
  • About
  • Contact

Feedback    Privacy/Legal

Copyright © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. Online ISSN 1091-6490