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Research Article

Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk

Michiel Schaeffer, Tom Kram, Malte Meinshausen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and William L. Hare
  1. aEnvironmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  2. bClimate and Global Sustainability Group, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands; and
  3. cPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

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PNAS first published December 22, 2008; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802416106
Michiel Schaeffer
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  • For correspondence: michiel.schaeffer@wur.nl
Tom Kram
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Malte Meinshausen
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Detlef P. van Vuuren
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William L. Hare
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  1. Edited by Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved November 12, 2008 (received for review March 13, 2008)

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Abstract

One approach in climate-change policy is to set normative long-term targets first and then infer the implied emissions pathways. An important example of a normative target is to limit the global-mean temperature change to a certain maximum. In general, reported cost estimates for limiting global warming often rise rapidly, even exponentially, as the scale of emission reductions from a reference level increases. This rapid rise may suggest that more ambitious policies may be prohibitively expensive. Here, we propose a probabilistic perspective, focused on the relationship between mitigation costs and the likelihood of achieving a climate target. We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels. In economic terms investing in climate mitigation to increase the probability of achieving climate targets yields “constant returns to scale,” because of a counterbalancing rapid rise in the probabilities of meeting a temperature target as concentration is lowered.

  • abatement costs
  • climate targets
  • mitigation
  • probabilistic framework
  • risk approach

Footnotes

  • 1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: michiel.schaeffer{at}wur.nl
  • Author contributions: M.S. designed research; M.S., M.M., and D.P.v.V. performed research; M.S., T.K., M.M., D.P.v.V., and W.L.H. analyzed data; and M.S., T.K., M.M., D.P.v.V., and W.L.H. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA
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Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk
Michiel Schaeffer, Tom Kram, Malte Meinshausen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, William L. Hare
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2008, pnas.0802416106; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0802416106

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Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk
Michiel Schaeffer, Tom Kram, Malte Meinshausen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, William L. Hare
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2008, pnas.0802416106; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0802416106
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