Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008
- aCenter for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, N-0318 Oslo, Norway;
- bDepartment for Sustainable Engineering, and
- cDepartment for the Economics of Climate Change, Technical University Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany;
- dScience and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC 20010;
- eCivil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; and
- fPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
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Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved March 29, 2011 (received for review May 12, 2010)

Abstract
Despite the emergence of regional climate policies, growth in global CO2 emissions has remained strong. From 1990 to 2008 CO2 emissions in developed countries (defined as countries with emission-reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol, Annex B) have stabilized, but emissions in developing countries (non-Annex B) have doubled. Some studies suggest that the stabilization of emissions in developed countries was partially because of growing imports from developing countries. To quantify the growth in emission transfers via international trade, we developed a trade-linked global database for CO2 emissions covering 113 countries and 57 economic sectors from 1990 to 2008. We find that the emissions from the production of traded goods and services have increased from 4.3 Gt CO2 in 1990 (20% of global emissions) to 7.8 Gt CO2 in 2008 (26%). Most developed countries have increased their consumption-based emissions faster than their territorial emissions, and non–energy-intensive manufacturing had a key role in the emission transfers. The net emission transfers via international trade from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 Gt CO2 in 1990 to 1.6 Gt CO2 in 2008, which exceeds the Kyoto Protocol emission reductions. Our results indicate that international trade is a significant factor in explaining the change in emissions in many countries, from both a production and consumption perspective. We suggest that countries monitor emission transfers via international trade, in addition to territorial emissions, to ensure progress toward stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: glen.peters{at}cicero.uio.no.
Author contributions: G.P.P., J.C.M., and C.L.W. designed research; G.P.P., J.C.M., and C.L.W. performed research; G.P.P., J.C.M., C.L.W., and O.E. analyzed data; and G.P.P., J.C.M., C.L.W., and O.E. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1006388108/-/DCSupplemental.
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