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Edited* by Eric S. Lander, The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, and approved March 22, 2012 (received for review December 19, 2011)
Abstract
Preferences are fundamental building blocks in all models of economic and political behavior. We study a new sample of comprehensively genotyped subjects with data on economic and political preferences and educational attainment. We use dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to estimate the proportion of variation in these traits explained by common SNPs and to conduct genome-wide association study (GWAS) and prediction analyses. The pattern of results is consistent with findings for other complex traits. First, the estimated fraction of phenotypic variation that could, in principle, be explained by dense SNP arrays is around one-half of the narrow heritability estimated using twin and family samples. The molecular-genetic–based heritability estimates, therefore, partially corroborate evidence of significant heritability from behavior genetic studies. Second, our analyses suggest that these traits have a polygenic architecture, with the heritable variation explained by many genes with small effects. Our results suggest that most published genetic association studies with economic and political traits are dramatically underpowered, which implies a high false discovery rate. These results convey a cautionary message for whether, how, and how soon molecular genetic data can contribute to, and potentially transform, research in social science. We propose some constructive responses to the inferential challenges posed by the small explanatory power of individual SNPs.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: daniel.benjamin{at}gmail.com.
↵2M.J. and P.M.V. contributed equally to this work.
Author contributions: D.J.B., D. Cesarini, M.J.H.M.v.d.L., M.J., and P.M.V. designed research; D.J.B., D. Cesarini, M.J.H.M.v.d.L., C.T.D., P.D.K., P.K.E.M., C.F.C., D. Conley, D.L., and M.J. performed research; D.J.B., D. Cesarini, M.J.H.M.v.d.L., and C.T.D. analyzed data; and D.J.B., D. Cesarini, C.F.C., D.L., M.J., and P.M.V. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
↵*This Direct Submission article had a prearranged editor.
*Beauchamp JP, Cesarini D, Johannesson M (2012) The Psychometric Properties of Measures of Economic Risk Preferences. Working Paper, Harvard University, New York University, and Stockholm School of Economics.
†Oskarsson, et al. (2010) Do Genes Mediate the Relationship between Personality and Ideology? Uppsala University Working Paper.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1120666109/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
Genetic architecture of preferences
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