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Research Article

The 27–year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes

Glenn De’ath, Katharina E. Fabricius, Hugh Sweatman, and Marji Puotinen
PNAS first published October 1, 2012; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1208909109
Glenn De’ath
aAustralian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia; and
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  • For correspondence: g.death@aims.gov.au
Katharina E. Fabricius
aAustralian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia; and
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Hugh Sweatman
aAustralian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia; and
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Marji Puotinen
bSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
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  1. Edited by Paul G. Falkowski, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, and approved September 5, 2012 (received for review May 25, 2012)

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Abstract

The world’s coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world’s most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985–2012), we show a major decline in coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y−1), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y−1 mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y−1, demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y−1, despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.

  • climate change
  • disturbance
  • anthropogenic risk
  • world heritage
  • reef management

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: g.death{at}aims.gov.au.
  • Author contributions: G.D., K.E.F., and M.P. designed research; G.D. and K.E.F. performed research; H.S. and M.P. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; G.D. analyzed data; and G.D., K.E.F., and H.S. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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27–year decline of coral cover and its causes
Glenn De’ath, Katharina E. Fabricius, Hugh Sweatman, Marji Puotinen
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2012, 201208909; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208909109

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27–year decline of coral cover and its causes
Glenn De’ath, Katharina E. Fabricius, Hugh Sweatman, Marji Puotinen
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2012, 201208909; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1208909109
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