Infrastructure built to protect cities from flooding can increase economic damages elsewhere.
Image credit: Michelle A. Hummel.
Edited by Ellen S. Mosley-Thompson, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, and approved January 25, 2013 (received for review August 21, 2012)
Abstract
Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.
- climate change
- human–environment
- marine transportation modeling
- Arctic maritime development
- global change
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: lsmith{at}geog.ucla.edu.
Author contributions: L.C.S. designed research; S.R.S. performed research; L.C.S. and S.R.S. analyzed data; and L.C.S. and S.R.S. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
New Trans-Arctic shipping routes
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