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Research Article

Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions

Anna M. Michalak, Eric J. Anderson, Dmitry Beletsky, Steven Boland, Nathan S. Bosch, Thomas B. Bridgeman, Justin D. Chaffin, Kyunghwa Cho, Rem Confesor, Irem Daloğlu, Joseph V. DePinto, Mary Anne Evans, Gary L. Fahnenstiel, Lingli He, Jeff C. Ho, Liza Jenkins, Thomas H. Johengen, Kevin C. Kuo, Elizabeth LaPorte, Xiaojian Liu, Michael R. McWilliams, Michael R. Moore, Derek J. Posselt, R. Peter Richards, Donald Scavia, Allison L. Steiner, Ed Verhamme, David M. Wright, and Melissa A. Zagorski
PNAS first published April 1, 2013; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1216006110
Anna M. Michalak
aDepartment of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305;
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  • For correspondence: michalak@stanford.edu
Eric J. Anderson
bGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, MI 48108;
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Dmitry Beletsky
cCooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Steven Boland
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Nathan S. Bosch
eEnvironmental Science, Grace College, Winona Lake, IN 46590;
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Thomas B. Bridgeman
fDepartment of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606
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Justin D. Chaffin
fDepartment of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606
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Kyunghwa Cho
gSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Rem Confesor
hNational Center for Water Quality Research, Heidelberg University, Tiffin, OH 44883;
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Irem Daloğlu
gSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Joseph V. DePinto
iLimnoTech, Ann Arbor, MI 48108;
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Mary Anne Evans
gSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Gary L. Fahnenstiel
jMichigan Tech Research Institute, Michigan Technological University, Ann Arbor, MI 48105;
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Lingli He
kDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Jeff C. Ho
lDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
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Liza Jenkins
gSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
jMichigan Tech Research Institute, Michigan Technological University, Ann Arbor, MI 48105;
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Thomas H. Johengen
cCooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Kevin C. Kuo
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
mSchool of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Elizabeth LaPorte
nMichigan Sea Grant, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104; and
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Xiaojian Liu
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Michael R. McWilliams
oDepartment of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
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Michael R. Moore
gSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Derek J. Posselt
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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R. Peter Richards
hNational Center for Water Quality Research, Heidelberg University, Tiffin, OH 44883;
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Donald Scavia
gSchool of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Allison L. Steiner
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Ed Verhamme
iLimnoTech, Ann Arbor, MI 48108;
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David M. Wright
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Melissa A. Zagorski
dDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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  1. Edited by Robert E. Hecky, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN, and accepted by the Editorial Board March 4, 2013 (received for review September 27, 2012)

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Abstract

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

  • extreme precipitation events
  • climate change
  • aquatic ecology
  • Microcystis sp.
  • Anabaena sp.

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: michalak{at}stanford.edu.
  • ↵2Present address: School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 689-798, Republic of Korea.

  • ↵3Present address: US Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48105.

  • Author contributions: A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., R.C., J.V.D., J.C.H., M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., and A.L.S. designed research; A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., S.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., J.D.C., K.C., R.C., I.D., M.A.E., G.L.F., L.H., J.C.H., L.J., T.H.J., K.C.K., X.L., M. R. McWilliams, M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., A.L.S., D.M.W., and M.A.Z. performed research; A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., S.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., J.D.C., K.C., R.C., I.D., J.V.D., M.A.E., L.H., J.C.H., L.J., T.H.J., K.C.K., X.L., M. R. McWilliams, M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., A.L.S., E.V., D.M.W., and M.A.Z. analyzed data; and A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., J.D.C., K.C., I.D., J.V.D., M.A.E., J.C.H., T.H.J., E.L., M. R. McWilliams, M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., and A.L.S. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. R.E.H. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1216006110/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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2011 Lake Erie harmful algal bloom
Anna M. Michalak, Eric J. Anderson, Dmitry Beletsky, Steven Boland, Nathan S. Bosch, Thomas B. Bridgeman, Justin D. Chaffin, Kyunghwa Cho, Rem Confesor, Irem Daloğlu, Joseph V. DePinto, Mary Anne Evans, Gary L. Fahnenstiel, Lingli He, Jeff C. Ho, Liza Jenkins, Thomas H. Johengen, Kevin C. Kuo, Elizabeth LaPorte, Xiaojian Liu, Michael R. McWilliams, Michael R. Moore, Derek J. Posselt, R. Peter Richards, Donald Scavia, Allison L. Steiner, Ed Verhamme, David M. Wright, Melissa A. Zagorski
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2013, 201216006; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1216006110

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2011 Lake Erie harmful algal bloom
Anna M. Michalak, Eric J. Anderson, Dmitry Beletsky, Steven Boland, Nathan S. Bosch, Thomas B. Bridgeman, Justin D. Chaffin, Kyunghwa Cho, Rem Confesor, Irem Daloğlu, Joseph V. DePinto, Mary Anne Evans, Gary L. Fahnenstiel, Lingli He, Jeff C. Ho, Liza Jenkins, Thomas H. Johengen, Kevin C. Kuo, Elizabeth LaPorte, Xiaojian Liu, Michael R. McWilliams, Michael R. Moore, Derek J. Posselt, R. Peter Richards, Donald Scavia, Allison L. Steiner, Ed Verhamme, David M. Wright, Melissa A. Zagorski
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2013, 201216006; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1216006110
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