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Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions
Edited by Robert E. Hecky, University of Minnesota, Duluth, MN, and accepted by the Editorial Board March 4, 2013 (received for review September 27, 2012)

Abstract
In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: michalak{at}stanford.edu.
↵2Present address: School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan 689-798, Republic of Korea.
↵3Present address: US Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48105.
Author contributions: A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., R.C., J.V.D., J.C.H., M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., and A.L.S. designed research; A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., S.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., J.D.C., K.C., R.C., I.D., M.A.E., G.L.F., L.H., J.C.H., L.J., T.H.J., K.C.K., X.L., M. R. McWilliams, M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., A.L.S., D.M.W., and M.A.Z. performed research; A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., S.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., J.D.C., K.C., R.C., I.D., J.V.D., M.A.E., L.H., J.C.H., L.J., T.H.J., K.C.K., X.L., M. R. McWilliams, M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., A.L.S., E.V., D.M.W., and M.A.Z. analyzed data; and A.M.M., E.J.A., D.B., N.S.B., T.B.B., J.D.C., K.C., I.D., J.V.D., M.A.E., J.C.H., T.H.J., E.L., M. R. McWilliams, M. R. Moore, D.J.P., R.P.R., D.S., and A.L.S. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. R.E.H. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1216006110/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.














