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Research Article

Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales

Claudia M. Stickler, Michael T. Coe, Marcos H. Costa, Daniel C. Nepstad, David G. McGrath, Livia C. P. Dias, Hermann O. Rodrigues, and Britaldo S. Soares-Filho
PNAS first published May 13, 2013; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1215331110
Claudia M. Stickler
aInternational Program, Amazon Environmental Research Institute, San Francisco, CA 94110;
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  • For correspondence: cstickler@ipam.org.br
Michael T. Coe
bThe Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
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Marcos H. Costa
cDepartamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 36570-000, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil;
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Daniel C. Nepstad
aInternational Program, Amazon Environmental Research Institute, San Francisco, CA 94110;
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David G. McGrath
bThe Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540;
dInstituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, 71503-505, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil;
ePrograma de Pós-graduação Doutorado em Sociedade, Natureza e Desenvolvimento, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, 68135-110, Santarém, Para, Brazil; and
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Livia C. P. Dias
cDepartamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 36570-000, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil;
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Hermann O. Rodrigues
fCentro de Sensoriamento Remoto, Instituto de Geociencias, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, 31270-900, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
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Britaldo S. Soares-Filho
fCentro de Sensoriamento Remoto, Instituto de Geociencias, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, 31270-900, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
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  1. Edited by Christopher B. Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, CA, and approved April 2, 2013 (received for review September 6, 2012)

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Abstract

Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations’ energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on river discharge and energy generation resulting from declines in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with forest conversion. Forest loss can also reduce river discharge, however, by inhibiting rainfall. We used land use, hydrological, and climate models to examine the local “direct” effects (through changes in ET within the watershed) and the potential regional “indirect” effects (through changes in rainfall) of deforestation on river discharge and energy generation potential for the Belo Monte energy complex, one of the world’s largest hydropower plants that is currently under construction on the Xingu River in the eastern Amazon. In the absence of indirect effects of deforestation, simulated deforestation of 20% and 40% within the Xingu River basin increased discharge by 4–8% and 10–12%, with similar increases in energy generation. When indirect effects were considered, deforestation of the Amazon region inhibited rainfall within the Xingu Basin, counterbalancing declines in ET and decreasing discharge by 6–36%. Under business-as-usual projections of forest loss for 2050 (40%), simulated power generation declined to only 25% of maximum plant output and 60% of the industry’s own projections. Like other energy sources, hydropower plants present large social and environmental costs. Their reliability as energy sources, however, must take into account their dependence on forests.

  • climate change
  • land-use planning
  • electricity
  • climate policy
  • forest policy

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: cstickler{at}ipam.org.br.
  • Author contributions: C.M.S., M.T.C., M.H.C., and D.C.N. designed research; C.M.S., M.T.C., M.H.C., L.C.P.D., H.O.R., and B.S.S.-F. performed research; C.M.S., M.T.C., M.H.C., D.C.N., and L.C.P.D. analyzed data; and C.M.S., M.T.C., M.H.C., D.C.N., and D.G.M. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1215331110/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Hydropower energy generation dependence on forests
Claudia M. Stickler, Michael T. Coe, Marcos H. Costa, Daniel C. Nepstad, David G. McGrath, Livia C. P. Dias, Hermann O. Rodrigues, Britaldo S. Soares-Filho
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences May 2013, 201215331; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1215331110

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Hydropower energy generation dependence on forests
Claudia M. Stickler, Michael T. Coe, Marcos H. Costa, Daniel C. Nepstad, David G. McGrath, Livia C. P. Dias, Hermann O. Rodrigues, Britaldo S. Soares-Filho
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences May 2013, 201215331; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1215331110
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