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Research Article

Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States

Scot M. Miller, Steven C. Wofsy, Anna M. Michalak, Eric A. Kort, Arlyn E. Andrews, Sebastien C. Biraud, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Janusz Eluszkiewicz, Marc L. Fischer, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ben R. Miller, John B. Miller, Stephen A. Montzka, Thomas Nehrkorn, and Colm Sweeney
  1. aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;
  2. bDepartment of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305;
  3. cDepartment of Atmospheric, Ocean, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
  4. dGlobal Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305;
  5. eEarth Sciences Division, and
  6. gEnvironmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720;
  7. fAtmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA 02421;
  8. hInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission Joint Research Centre, 21027 Ispra, Italy; and
  9. iCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309

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PNAS first published November 25, 2013; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1314392110
Scot M. Miller
aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;
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  • For correspondence: scot.m.miller@gmail.com
Steven C. Wofsy
aDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;
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Anna M. Michalak
bDepartment of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305;
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Eric A. Kort
cDepartment of Atmospheric, Ocean, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109;
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Arlyn E. Andrews
dGlobal Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305;
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Sebastien C. Biraud
eEarth Sciences Division, and
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Edward J. Dlugokencky
dGlobal Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305;
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Janusz Eluszkiewicz
fAtmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA 02421;
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Marc L. Fischer
gEnvironmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720;
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Greet Janssens-Maenhout
hInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission Joint Research Centre, 21027 Ispra, Italy; and
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Ben R. Miller
iCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309
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John B. Miller
iCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309
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Stephen A. Montzka
dGlobal Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305;
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Thomas Nehrkorn
fAtmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA 02421;
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Colm Sweeney
iCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309
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  1. Edited by Mark H. Thiemens, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved October 18, 2013 (received for review August 5, 2013)

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Significance

Successful regulation of greenhouse gas emissions requires knowledge of current methane emission sources. Existing state regulations in California and Massachusetts require ∼15% greenhouse gas emissions reductions from current levels by 2020. However, government estimates for total US methane emissions may be biased by 50%, and estimates of individual source sectors are even more uncertain. This study uses atmospheric methane observations to reduce this level of uncertainty. We find greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and fossil fuel extraction and processing (i.e., oil and/or natural gas) are likely a factor of two or greater than cited in existing studies. Effective national and state greenhouse gas reduction strategies may be difficult to develop without appropriate estimates of methane emissions from these source sectors.

Abstract

This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane–propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA’s recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25–30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

  • climate change policy
  • geostatistical inverse modeling

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: scot.m.miller{at}gmail.com.
  • Author contributions: S.M.M., S.C.W., and A.M.M. designed research; S.M.M., A.E.A., S.C.B., E.J.D., J.E., M.L.F., G.J.-M., B.R.M., J.B.M., S.A.M., T.N., and C.S. performed research; S.M.M. analyzed data; S.M.M., S.C.W., A.M.M., and E.A.K. wrote the paper; A.E.A., S.C.B., E.J.D., M.L.F., B.R.M., J.B.M., S.A.M., and C.S. collected atmospheric methane data; and J.E. and T.N. developed meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1314392110/-/DCSupplemental.

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Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the US
Scot M. Miller, Steven C. Wofsy, Anna M. Michalak, Eric A. Kort, Arlyn E. Andrews, Sebastien C. Biraud, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Janusz Eluszkiewicz, Marc L. Fischer, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ben R. Miller, John B. Miller, Stephen A. Montzka, Thomas Nehrkorn, Colm Sweeney
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2013, 201314392; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314392110

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Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the US
Scot M. Miller, Steven C. Wofsy, Anna M. Michalak, Eric A. Kort, Arlyn E. Andrews, Sebastien C. Biraud, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Janusz Eluszkiewicz, Marc L. Fischer, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ben R. Miller, John B. Miller, Stephen A. Montzka, Thomas Nehrkorn, Colm Sweeney
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2013, 201314392; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314392110
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