Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation

Avery S. Cohn, Aline Mosnier, Petr Havlík, Hugo Valin, Mario Herrero, Erwin Schmid, Michael O’Hare, and Michael Obersteiner
PNAS published ahead of print April 28, 2014 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1307163111

  1. Edited by William C. Clark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, and approved March 25, 2014 (received for review April 16, 2013)

Significance

Could the intensification of pasture-based cattle ranching allow Brazil to protect its forests and reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while increasing its agricultural production? Would these benefits be substantially undermined by increased deforestation and GHGs triggered abroad? We model two policies for increasing cattle ranching productivity in Brazil: a tax on conventional pasture and a subsidy for semi-intensive pasture. Either policy could considerably mitigate global GHGs by limiting future deforestation in Brazil. The GHG benefits would be roughly ten times greater than the emissions triggered by policies stemming from (i) increased cattle production abroad (under the tax) and (ii) increased beef consumption (under the subsidy). Agricultural intensification policies may help emerging economies to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

Abstract

This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: avery.cohn{at}tufts.edu.

  • Author contributions: A.S.C., P.H., M.H., M. O'Hare, and M. Obersteiner designed research; A.S.C., A.M., P.H., M.H., and E.S. performed research; A.S.C. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; A.S.C., A.M., P.H., H.V., M.H., and M. Obersteiner analyzed data; and A.S.C., A.M., and M. O'Hare wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • *Rapid increases in trade between nations is rarely observed because trade requires infrastructure and relationships that cannot be instantaneously created. For more see, ref. 19. In the model, bilateral trade cannot increase by greater than 7.5 times from year to year. This constraint binds on cattle ranching output. It has minimal effects on GHGs, but it does increase global trade by triggering re-exporting.

  • †Borlaug N (1987) Making institutions work: A scientist's viewpoint. Conference on Water and Water Policy in World Food Supplies, May 26–30, 1985, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX.

  • ‡The PNMC defines mitigation targets sector by sector relative to reference emissions projections. Avoided deforestation targets under the PNMC were set as a percentage of a baseline deforestation rate. The baseline deforestation rate assumed for the PNMC is an average of the deforestation rate over the period from July 1995 to July 2005. The location of deforestation under the baseline and reduction scenarios was simulated, and GHG abatement was estimated based on the difference between the baseline and the policy emissions. For more, see refs. 18 and 20.

  • §Price effects mediate various leakage mechanisms. One example is that local price increases decrease demand, reduce prices elsewhere, and increase consumption elsewhere. Another is that a constraint on supply increases prices and increases production elsewhere.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1307163111/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Cattle intensification in Brazil cuts global GHGs
Avery S. Cohn, Aline Mosnier, Petr Havlík, Hugo Valin, Mario Herrero, Erwin Schmid, Michael O’Hare, Michael Obersteiner
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2014, 201307163; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1307163111
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