Recent shifts in the occurrence, cause, and magnitude of animal mass mortality events

Samuel B. Fey, Adam M. Siepielski, Sébastien Nusslé, Kristina Cervantes-Yoshida, Jason L. Hwan, Eric R. Huber, Maxfield J. Fey, Alessandro Catenazzi, and Stephanie M. Carlson
PNAS published ahead of print January 12, 2015 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414894112

  1. Edited by James A. Estes, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, and approved December 22, 2014 (received for review August 5, 2014)

Significance

Mass mortality events (MMEs), the rapid, catastrophic die-off of organisms, are an example of a rare event affecting natural populations. Individual reports of MMEs clearly demonstrate their ecological and evolutionary importance, yet our understanding of the general features characterizing such events is limited. Here, we conducted the first, to our knowledge, quantitative analysis of MMEs across the animal kingdom, and as such, we were able to explore novel patterns, trends, and features associated with MMEs. Our analysis uncovered the surprising finding that there have been recent shifts in the magnitudes of MMEs and their associated causes. Our database allows the recommendation of improvements for data collection in ways that will enhance our understanding of how MMEs relate to ongoing perturbations to ecosystems.

Abstract

Mass mortality events (MMEs) are rapidly occurring catastrophic demographic events that punctuate background mortality levels. Individual MMEs are staggering in their observed magnitude: removing more than 90% of a population, resulting in the death of more than a billion individuals, or producing 700 million tons of dead biomass in a single event. Despite extensive documentation of individual MMEs, we have no understanding of the major features characterizing the occurrence and magnitude of MMEs, their causes, or trends through time. Thus, no framework exists for contextualizing MMEs in the wake of ongoing global and regional perturbations to natural systems. Here we present an analysis of 727 published MMEs from across the globe, affecting 2,407 animal populations. We show that the magnitude of MMEs has been intensifying for birds, fishes, and marine invertebrates; invariant for mammals; and decreasing for reptiles and amphibians. These shifts in magnitude proved robust when we accounted for an increase in the occurrence of MMEs since 1940. However, it remains unclear whether the increase in the occurrence of MMEs represents a true pattern or simply a perceived increase. Regardless, the increase in MMEs appears to be associated with a rise in disease emergence, biotoxicity, and events produced by multiple interacting stressors, yet temporal trends in MME causes varied among taxa and may be associated with increased detectability. In addition, MMEs with the largest magnitudes were those that resulted from multiple stressors, starvation, and disease. These results advance our understanding of rare demographic processes and their relationship to global and regional perturbations to natural systems.

Footnotes

  • ↵1S.B.F. and A.M.S. contributed equally to this work.

  • ↵2To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: samuel.fey{at}yale.edu.

  • Author contributions: A.M.S. conceived the study; S.B.F., A.M.S., and S.M.C. designed research; S.B.F., A.M.S., K.C.-Y., J.L.H., E.R.H., M.J.F., A.C., and S.M.C. performed research; S.N. analyzed data; and S.B.F., A.M.S., S.N., and S.M.C. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1414894112/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Recent shifts in animal mass mortality events
Samuel B. Fey, Adam M. Siepielski, Sébastien Nusslé, Kristina Cervantes-Yoshida, Jason L. Hwan, Eric R. Huber, Maxfield J. Fey, Alessandro Catenazzi, Stephanie M. Carlson
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Jan 2015, 201414894; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1414894112
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