Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone

Adam J. Kucharski; Anton Camacho; Stefan Flasche; Rebecca E. Glover; W. John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk

doi:10.1073/pnas.1508814112

New Research In

Edited by Burton H. Singer, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, and approved September 10, 2015 (received for review May 5, 2015)

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Bed capacity and Ebola transmission
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Significance

Between June 2014 and February 2015, thousands of Ebola treatment beds were introduced in Sierra Leone, alongside other infection control measures. However, there has been criticism of the timing and focus of this response, and it remains unclear how much it contributed to curbing the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic. Using a mathematical model, we estimated how many Ebola virus disease cases the response averted in each district of Sierra Leone. We estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases were averted in Sierra Leone as a direct result of additional treatment beds. Moreover, the number of cases averted would have been even greater had beds been available 1 month earlier.

Abstract

Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. However, assessing the impact of the response is challenging, as several factors could have influenced the decline in infections, including behavior changes and other community interventions. We developed a mathematical model of EVD transmission, and measured how transmission changed over time in the 12 districts of Sierra Leone with sustained transmission between June 2014 and February 2015. We used the model to estimate how many cases were averted as a result of the introduction of additional treatment beds in each area. Examining epidemic dynamics at the district level, we estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases (both reported and unreported) were averted in Sierra Leone up to February 2, 2015 as a direct result of additional treatment beds being introduced. We also found that if beds had been introduced 1 month earlier, a further 12,500 cases could have been averted. Our results suggest the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in EVD transmission during 2014–2015. In particular, the introduction of beds had a direct impact on reducing EVD cases in Sierra Leone, although the effect varied considerably between districts.

Footnotes

↵¹To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: adam.kucharski{at}lshtm.ac.uk.

Author contributions: A.J.K., A.C., W.J.E., and S. Funk designed research; A.J.K. performed research; R.E.G. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; A.J.K., A.C., S. Flasche, W.J.E., and S. Funk analyzed data; R.E.G. performed data extraction and cleaning; and A.J.K., A.C., S. Flasche, W.J.E., and S. Funk wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
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