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Research Article

Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, and Bethany A. Frew
  1. aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
  2. bInstitute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720

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PNAS first published November 23, 2015; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510028112
Mark Z. Jacobson
aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
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  • For correspondence: jacobson@stanford.edu
Mark A. Delucchi
bInstitute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
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Mary A. Cameron
aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
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Bethany A. Frew
aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
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  1. Edited by Stephen Polasky, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, and approved November 2, 2015 (received for review May 26, 2015)

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Significance

The large-scale conversion to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) is currently inhibited by a fear of grid instability and high cost due to the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar. This paper couples numerical simulation of time- and space-dependent weather with simulation of time-dependent power demand, storage, and demand response to provide low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055. Solutions are obtained without higher-cost stationary battery storage by prioritizing storage of heat in soil and water; cold in water and ice; and electricity in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen.

Abstract

This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050–2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.

  • energy security
  • climate change
  • grid stability
  • renewable energy
  • energy cost

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: jacobson{at}stanford.edu.
  • Author contributions: M.Z.J. designed research; M.Z.J. and M.A.D. performed research; M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. contributed analytic tools; M.Z.J., M.A.D., and M.A.C. analyzed data; and M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Data available upon request (from M.Z.J.).

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1510028112/-/DCSupplemental.

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Stabilizing grid with 100% renewables 2050
Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, Bethany A. Frew
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2015, 201510028; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1510028112

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Stabilizing grid with 100% renewables 2050
Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, Bethany A. Frew
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2015, 201510028; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1510028112
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