Recent experiments and simulations are starting to answer some fundamental questions about how life came to be.
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Edited by Stephen Polasky, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, and approved November 2, 2015 (received for review May 26, 2015)
Significance
The large-scale conversion to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) is currently inhibited by a fear of grid instability and high cost due to the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar. This paper couples numerical simulation of time- and space-dependent weather with simulation of time-dependent power demand, storage, and demand response to provide low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055. Solutions are obtained without higher-cost stationary battery storage by prioritizing storage of heat in soil and water; cold in water and ice; and electricity in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen.
Abstract
This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050–2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: jacobson{at}stanford.edu.
Author contributions: M.Z.J. designed research; M.Z.J. and M.A.D. performed research; M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. contributed analytic tools; M.Z.J., M.A.D., and M.A.C. analyzed data; and M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
Data available upon request (from M.Z.J.).
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1510028112/-/DCSupplemental.
Stabilizing grid with 100% renewables 2050
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