Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, and Bethany A. Frew
PNAS first published November 23, 2015 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510028112

  1. Edited by Stephen Polasky, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, and approved November 2, 2015 (received for review May 26, 2015)

This article has a Letter. Please see:

Significance

The large-scale conversion to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) is currently inhibited by a fear of grid instability and high cost due to the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar. This paper couples numerical simulation of time- and space-dependent weather with simulation of time-dependent power demand, storage, and demand response to provide low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055. Solutions are obtained without higher-cost stationary battery storage by prioritizing storage of heat in soil and water; cold in water and ice; and electricity in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen.

Abstract

This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050–2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: jacobson{at}stanford.edu.

  • Author contributions: M.Z.J. designed research; M.Z.J. and M.A.D. performed research; M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. contributed analytic tools; M.Z.J., M.A.D., and M.A.C. analyzed data; and M.Z.J., M.A.D., M.A.C., and B.A.F. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Data available upon request (from M.Z.J.).

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1510028112/-/DCSupplemental.

Back to top
Article Alerts
Email Article
Citation Tools
Request Permissions
Stabilizing grid with 100% renewables 2050
Mark Z. Jacobson, Mark A. Delucchi, Mary A. Cameron, Bethany A. Frew
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2015, 201510028; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1510028112
del.icio.us logo Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo CiteULike logo Facebook logo Google logo Mendeley logo
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 116 (21)
Current Issue

Submit

Jump to section

You May Also be Interested in

Forest ecosystems sequester a large portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. To maximize carbon storage, policymakers must embrace “disturbance ecology,” balancing immediate, disturbance-driven carbon loss with long-term stable carbon storage. Image credit: Shutterstock/Christian Roberts-Olsen.
Opinion: Managing for disturbance stabilizes forest carbon
Forest ecosystems sequester a large portion of anthropogenic carbon emissions. To maximize carbon storage, policymakers must embrace “disturbance ecology,” balancing immediate, disturbance-driven carbon loss with long-term stable carbon storage.
Image credit: Shutterstock/Christian Roberts-Olsen.
Air pollution. Image courtesy of Pixabay/SD-Pictures.
Location-specific air pollution damages
A study estimates 107,000 cases of premature death in the United States due to anthropogenic particulate matter PM2.5 in 2011, with a societal cost of $886 billion, highlighting the importance of modeling emissions at fine spatial scales to prioritize emissions mitigation efforts.
Image courtesy of Pixabay/SD-Pictures.
Covalent heterobivalent inhibitor binding to the antigen binding site (red) and a secondary binding site (orange) of an antibody (blue), and forming a covalent bond to the antibody (black). Image courtesy of Peter Edward Deak and Basar Bilgicer.
Selective inhibition of peanut-specific antibodies
A study suggests a potential treatment approach for severe peanut allergies; treatment inhibited more than 80% of the allergic response to crude peanut extract in serum from 14 of 16 patients and reduced basophil activation in whole blood from three patients.
Image courtesy of Peter E. Deak and Basar Bilgicer.
Public interest in US birds
A study quantifies the drivers of public interest in more than 600 bird species in the United States by comparing summaries of online searches for each species to the species’ abundance and spatial distribution.
Image courtesy of Pixabay/Kathy2408.