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Research Article

Benefits of mercury controls for the United States

View ORCID ProfileAmanda Giang and Noelle E. Selin
  1. aInstitute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
  2. bDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139

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PNAS first published December 28, 2015; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1514395113
Amanda Giang
aInstitute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
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  • ORCID record for Amanda Giang
  • For correspondence: agiang@mit.edu
Noelle E. Selin
aInstitute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139;
bDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
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  1. Edited by Catherine L. Kling, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, and approved November 18, 2015 (received for review July 21, 2015)

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Significance

Mercury is a globally transported pollutant with potent neurotoxic effects for both humans and wildlife. This study introduces an assessment method to estimate the potential human health-related economic benefits of global and domestic mercury control policies. It finds that for the US population as a whole, global mercury controls could lead to approximately twice the benefits of domestic action by 2050. This result is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities along the emissions-to-impacts path, although we find that those consuming locally caught freshwater fish in the United States could benefit more from domestic action.

Abstract

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action.

  • mercury
  • policy
  • impacts assessment
  • Minamata Convention
  • economic benefits

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: agiang{at}mit.edu.
  • Author contributions: A.G. and N.E.S. designed research; A.G. performed research; A.G. and N.E.S. analyzed data; and A.G. and N.E.S. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1514395113/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

http://www.pnas.org/preview_site/misc/userlicense.xhtml
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Benefits of mercury controls for the United States
Amanda Giang, Noelle E. Selin
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2015, 201514395; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1514395113

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Benefits of mercury controls for the United States
Amanda Giang, Noelle E. Selin
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2015, 201514395; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1514395113
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