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Research Article

Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes

Christopher Costello, Daniel Ovando, Tyler Clavelle, C. Kent Strauss, Ray Hilborn, Michael C. Melnychuk, Trevor A. Branch, Steven D. Gaines, Cody S. Szuwalski, Reniel B. Cabral, Douglas N. Rader, and Amanda Leland
  1. aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
  2. bEnvironmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
  3. cSchool of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195

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PNAS first published March 28, 2016; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1520420113
Christopher Costello
aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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  • For correspondence: costello@bren.ucsb.edu
Daniel Ovando
aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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Tyler Clavelle
aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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C. Kent Strauss
bEnvironmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
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Ray Hilborn
cSchool of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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Michael C. Melnychuk
cSchool of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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Trevor A. Branch
cSchool of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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Steven D. Gaines
aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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Cody S. Szuwalski
aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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Reniel B. Cabral
aBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
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Douglas N. Rader
bEnvironmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
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Amanda Leland
bEnvironmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
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  1. Edited by James A. Estes, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, and approved February 26, 2016 (received for review October 14, 2015)

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Significance

What would extensive fishery reform look like? In addition, what would be the benefits and trade-offs of implementing alternative approaches to fisheries management on a worldwide scale? To find out, we assembled the largest-of-its-kind database and coupled it to state-of-the-art bioeconomic models for more than 4,500 fisheries around the world. We find that, in nearly every country of the world, fishery recovery would simultaneously drive increases in food provision, fishery profits, and fish biomass in the sea. Our results suggest that a suite of approaches providing individual or communal access rights to fishery resources can align incentives across profit, food, and conservation so that few trade-offs will have to be made across these objectives in selecting effective policy interventions.

Abstract

Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous—the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

  • fishery recovery
  • fishery reform
  • rights-based fishery management
  • bioeconomic model

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: costello{at}bren.ucsb.edu.
  • Author contributions: C.C., C.K.S., R.H., M.C.M., T.A.B., S.D.G., C.S.S., D.N.R., and A.L. designed research; C.C., D.O., T.C., C.K.S., M.C.M., C.S.S., and R.B.C. performed research; D.O., T.C., R.H., M.C.M., C.S.S., R.B.C., and D.N.R. analyzed data; and C.C., S.D.G., R.B.C., D.N.R., and A.L. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1520420113/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Global fishery prospects
Christopher Costello, Daniel Ovando, Tyler Clavelle, C. Kent Strauss, Ray Hilborn, Michael C. Melnychuk, Trevor A. Branch, Steven D. Gaines, Cody S. Szuwalski, Reniel B. Cabral, Douglas N. Rader, Amanda Leland
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2016, 201520420; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1520420113

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Global fishery prospects
Christopher Costello, Daniel Ovando, Tyler Clavelle, C. Kent Strauss, Ray Hilborn, Michael C. Melnychuk, Trevor A. Branch, Steven D. Gaines, Cody S. Szuwalski, Reniel B. Cabral, Douglas N. Rader, Amanda Leland
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2016, 201520420; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1520420113
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This article has a Letter. Please see:

  • Relationship between Research Article and Letter - June 15, 2016

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  • Averting a global fisheries disaster
    - Apr 19, 2016
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: 118 (9)
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