Better explicating the strengths and shortcomings of these models will help refine projections and improve transparency in the years ahead.
Image credit: Witsawat.S.
Edited by Harold A. Mooney, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, and approved April 28, 2016 (received for review February 13, 2016)
Significance
A key scientific and policy challenge relating to invasive species at the world level is to understand and predict which countries are most vulnerable to the threat of invasive species. We present an analysis of the threat from almost 1,300 agricultural invasive species to the world (124 countries). The analysis examines the global distribution of these species, international trade flows, and each country’s main agricultural production crops, to determine potential invasion and impact of these invasive species. We found the most vulnerable countries to be from Sub-Saharan Africa, while those countries representing the greatest threat to the rest of the world (given the invasive species they already contain, and their trade patterns) to be the United States and China.
Abstract
Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread.
Footnotes
- ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: Dean.Paini{at}csiro.au.
Author contributions: D.R.P., A.W.S., D.C.C., P.J.D.B., S.P.W., and M.B.T. designed research; D.R.P. performed research; D.R.P. and D.C.C. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; D.R.P. analyzed data; and D.R.P., A.W.S., D.C.C., P.J.D.B., S.P.W., and M.B.T. wrote the paper.
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1602205113/-/DCSupplemental.
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
Global threat to agriculture from invasive species
Sign up for Article Alerts
Jump to section
You May Also be Interested in
Did the Caribbean sweep into the western Amazon millions of years ago, shaping the region’s rich biodiversity?
Image credit: Tacio Cordeiro Bicudo (University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil), Victor Sacek (University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil), and Lucy Reading-Ikkanda (artist).
Settlements 4,200 years ago may have suffered from overpopulation before drought and lower temperatures ultimately made them unsustainable.
Image credit: Andrea Ricci.
Mara Reed and Michael Manga explore why Yellowstone's Steamboat Geyser resumed erupting in 2018.
Some songbird parents might improve their own fitness by manipulating their offspring into leaving the nest early, at the cost of fledgling survival, a study finds.
Image credit: Gil Eckrich (photographer).