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Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

Ning Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton, and Jeffrey P. Donnelly
PNAS published ahead of print October 10, 2016 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604386113
Ning Lin
aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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  • For correspondence: nlin@princeton.edu
Robert E. Kopp
bDepartment of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854;cRutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854;dInstitute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901;
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Benjamin P. Horton
dInstitute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901;eDepartment of Marine & Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901;fEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798;gAsian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798;
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Jeffrey P. Donnelly
hCoastal Systems Group, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543
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  1. Edited by Anny Cazenave, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse, France, and approved July 26, 2016 (received for review March 16, 2016)

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Significance

This study demonstrates quantitatively that the frequency of Hurricane Sandy-like extreme flood events has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century, due to the compound effects of sea level rise and storm climatology change.

Abstract

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

  • Hurricane Sandy
  • storm surge
  • sea level rise
  • climate change
  • New York City

Footnotes

  • ↵1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: nlin{at}princeton.edu.
  • Author contributions: N.L., B.P.H., and J.P.D. designed research; N.L. and R.E.K. performed research; N.L. analyzed data; and N.L., R.E.K., B.P.H., and J.P.D. wrote the paper.

  • The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  • This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.

  • Data deposition: The data reported in this paper have been deposited at arks.princeton.edu/ark:/88435/dsp01fn107142z.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Sandy's flood frequency from 1800 to 2100
Ning Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2016, 201604386; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1604386113

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Sandy's flood frequency from 1800 to 2100
Ning Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Oct 2016, 201604386; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1604386113
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