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Research Article

The emergence of longevous populations

Fernando Colchero, Roland Rau, View ORCID ProfileOwen R. Jones, Julia A. Barthold, Dalia A. Conde, Adam Lenart, Laszlo Nemeth, Alexander Scheuerlein, Jonas Schoeley, Catalina Torres, Virginia Zarulli, Jeanne Altmann, Diane K. Brockman, Anne M. Bronikowski, Linda M. Fedigan, Anne E. Pusey, Tara S. Stoinski, Karen B. Strier, Annette Baudisch, Susan C. Alberts, and James W. Vaupel
PNAS first published November 21, 2016; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1612191113
Fernando Colchero
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
bDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
cMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany;
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Roland Rau
cMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany;
dInstitute of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock 18057, Germany;
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Owen R. Jones
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
eDepartment of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
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  • ORCID record for Owen R. Jones
Julia A. Barthold
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
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Dalia A. Conde
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
eDepartment of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
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Adam Lenart
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
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Laszlo Nemeth
cMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany;
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Alexander Scheuerlein
cMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany;
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Jonas Schoeley
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
cMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
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Catalina Torres
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
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Virginia Zarulli
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
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Jeanne Altmann
gDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
hInstitute of Primate Research, National Museums of Kenya, 00502 Nairobi, Kenya;
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Diane K. Brockman
iDepartment of Anthropology, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC 28223;
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Anne M. Bronikowski
jDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011;
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Linda M. Fedigan
kDepartment of Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada T2N 1N4;
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Anne E. Pusey
lDepartment of Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
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Tara S. Stoinski
mThe Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund International and Zoo Atlanta, Atlanta, GA 30315;
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Karen B. Strier
nDepartment of Anthropology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706;
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Annette Baudisch
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
eDepartment of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
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Susan C. Alberts
hInstitute of Primate Research, National Museums of Kenya, 00502 Nairobi, Kenya;
lDepartment of Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
oDepartment of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
pDuke Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
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  • For correspondence: jvaupel@health.sdu.dk alberts@duke.edu
James W. Vaupel
aMax-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5230, Denmark;
cMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany;
fDepartment of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense 5000, Denmark;
pDuke Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708
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  • For correspondence: jvaupel@health.sdu.dk alberts@duke.edu
  1. Contributed by James W. Vaupel, October 17, 2016 (sent for review July 26, 2016; reviewed by Michael Murphy and Deborah Roach)

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  • Fig. 1.
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    Fig. 1.

    Lifespan distributions for males and females. Each panel presents the proportion of individuals dying by age for females (red) and males (blue). Infant mortality (before age 1 y) is reported in Inset pie charts. The solid vertical lines mark life expectancies for each sex. The dashed vertical lines indicate the average number of years of life expectancy lost due to death. Keyfitz’s entropy is given by this value divided by life expectancy (Box 1). For the muriqui, capuchin, and female gorillas, the curves are extrapolated beyond maximum estimated lifespans within the dataset, as indicated by dotted curves and diagonal shading (Materials and Methods).

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    Fig. S1.

    Survivorship curves for each sex for the 12 datasets analyzed. Each panel represents the survivorship (proportion surviving) for females (red) and males (blue) for the seven species including six datasets for humans. The solid vertical lines mark life expectancies for each sex. The dashed vertical lines indicate the average number of years of life expectancy lost due to death. Keyfitz’s entropy is given by this value divided by life expectancy (Box 1). For the muriqui, capuchin, and female gorillas, the curves are extrapolated beyond maximum estimated lifespans within the dataset, as indicated by dotted curves and diagonal shading (Materials and Methods).

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    Fig. 2.

    Ranking of four measures of length of life and five measures of variation in lifespan, for females and males in the 12 focal populations. The rank ordering of the populations for each measure is shown in increasing order (lowest to the left, highest to the right).

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    Fig. 3.

    Scatterplots showing relationships among selected measures of the length of life and lifespan equality for the 12 datasets analyzed. A–C show scatterplots between measures of length of life, D–F show comparisons between measures of lifespan equality, and G–I show scatterplots between length of life and measures of lifespan equality. For display purposes, the values of the Gini coefficient and the coefficient of variation were transformed by subtracting each population’s value from the maximum in the dataset.

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    Fig. 4.

    The continuum of lifespan equality and life expectancy in primates. In A–C, the y axis shows our measure of lifespan equality, the log of the inverse of Keyfitz’s entropy; corresponding values of Keyftiz’s entropy are given in parentheses in A. (A) The evolutionary-historical continuum in lifespan equality and life expectancy for the 12 focal populations (Fig. 1) and 16 additional human populations (Table S4). The equation for the gray regression line is ε^0i=− 0.96 + 0.037 e0i (slope: t = 41.45, P < 0.0001, df = 20), and for the yellow regression line ε^0i=− 0.18 + 0.014 e0i (slope: t = 3.34, P = 0.02, df = 7), where ε^0i denotes the estimated lifespan equality for the ith population and e0i life expectancy. We also estimated a version of the yellow regression line using only hunter-gatherer data for humans: This line is ε^0i=− 0.17 + 0.0135 e0i (slope: t = 3.17, P = 0.02, df = 7). (B) The continuum for 8,198 human life tables. The blue curved line describes the relationship between lifespan equality and life expectancy if mortality follows Gompertz’s law, i.e., if the risk of death rises exponentially, increasing 14%/y. Because of the paucity of observations, the 99% confidence intervals (CIs) are not shown for life expectancies below 35 y or over 85 y. (C) The continuum for three short-term crisis populations when mortality sharply rose and then sharply declined from year to year. In A and C, data for female–male pairs from each population are indicated by a point with a “tail”; the point represents female values, with male values at the end of the tail.

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    Fig. 5.

    Absolute and relative male–female differences in life expectancy and lifespan equality. Absolute differences between the male and female values are shown in the Top two panels; relative differences are shown in the Bottom two panels, expressed as the percentage of difference of males from females. Dark red dashed lines represent the median of each set of values; all medians lie in the direction of a female advantage.

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    Fig. S2.

    Circles represent times of entry; solid circles are known times of birth and open circles are entries after birth. Squares are departure times where solid squares are known times of death and open squares are out-migration. Solid triangles indicate individuals known to be alive until the end of the study and vertical bars indicate unknown type of departure.

Tables

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    Table 1.

    Nonhuman primate species included in the study, showing ages at sexual maturity for each sex and the numbers of individuals for each sex for each study population

    Age at adulthood, ySample size by sex
    Common nameSpeciesFamilyCountryFemaleMaleFemaleMaleUnknown
    SifakaPropithecus verreauxiIndriidaeMadagascar6.55.5266342385
    Northern muriquiBrachyteles hypoxanthusAtelidaeBrazil8.56.52632635
    CapuchinCebus capucinusCebidaeCosta Rica6.56.511315816
    Yellow baboonPapio cynocephalusCercopithecidaeKenya5.57.56187060
    ChimpanzeePan troglodytesHominidaeTanzania14.514.515513317
    GorillaGorilla beringeiHominidaeRwanda9.515.515115119
    • For more detailed information on each study see refs. 11 and 12.

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    Table 2.

    Spearman’s (open cells) and Pearson's (shaded cells) correlation coefficients between the measures of length of life and of lifespan equality for females and males of the 12 main populations

    Embedded Image
    • The row and column heads correspond to the following: e0, life expectancy; eα, adult life expectancy; Ω0, exceptional age; Ωα, exceptional age for adults; ε0, lifespan equality; g0, Gini coefficient; cv0, coefficient of variation; lα, proportion surviving to maturity; e0/Ω0, life expectancy as a proportion of exceptional age (see Box 1 and Materials and Methods for a full description of the measures).

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    Table S1.

    Estimated means (and SEs in parentheses) of the measures of length of life for females and males for each of the main populations analyzed

    Speciese0eαΩ0Ωα
    Females
     Sifaka5.58 (0.525)10.6 (0.609)32.3 (1.86)36.1 (2.48)
     Muriqui28.1 (7.37)34.7 (11.7)65.6 (19)*67.1 (20.4)*
     Capuchin9.6 (1.21)11 (1.51)33.6 (6.56)35.5 (7.81)
     Baboon9.34 (0.389)10.3 (0.412)27.5 (1.01)28.4 (1.09)
     Chimpanzee16.1 (1.75)19 (1.38)53.7 (3.17)56.1 (3.55)
     Gorilla19.4 (1.65)24 (1.19)44.4 (1.4)45.1 (1.44)
     Liberia2.23 (0.487)16.5 (0.771)38.3 (4.35)68.4 (2.37)
     Hadza37.4 (2.12)45.4 (2.14)86.8 (1.45)87.3 (1.05)
     Ache37 (2.06)43.3 (2.04)77.8 (0.762)77.8 (0.762)
     Sweden 1751–175937.8 (0.0608)44.3 (0.0533)92 (0)93.6 (0.488)
     Sweden 2000–200982.6 (0.0178)68 (0.0163)102 (0.01)102 (0)
     Japan 201286.4 (0.0154)71.8 (0.0137)105 (0)105 (0)
    Males
     Sifaka5.93 (0.483)11.5 (0.525)25.7 (0.805)27.1 (0.911)
     Muriqui21.2 (4.39)24.9 (6.55)59.3 (23.3)*60.4 (24.3)*
     Capuchin8.07 (1.12)10.7 (1.85)28.2 (7.74)29.7 (9.43)
     Baboon8.13 (0.512)7.94 (0.734)24.6 (1.4)25.7 (1.49)
     Chimpanzee12.8 (1.35)13.8 (0.964)43 (1.64)44.9 (1.82)
     Gorilla18 (1.47)14.5 (1.24)39.9 (2.1)40.5 (2.18)
     Liberia1.68 (0.427)15 (0.74)30.9 (5.71)65.1 (1.79)
     Hadza32.4 (1.83)38.8 (2)84.2 (0.794)84.5 (0.649)
     Ache37.7 (1.64)36.8 (1.57)79.7 (1.13)79.7 (1.05)
     Sweden 1751–175934.8 (0.0593)41.8 (0.0558)90 (0.217)92 (0.0666)
     Sweden 2000–200978.3 (0.0189)63.7 (0.0174)99 (0)99 (0)
     Japan 201280 (0.0162)65.3 (0.0148)101 (0)101 (0)
    • The column heads are as follows: e0, life expectancy; eα, adult life expectancy; Ω0, exceptional age; Ωα, exceptional age for adults (see Box 1 and Materials and Methods for a full description of the measures). SEs with null values for some of the exceptional ages (Ω) are the result of using integer age intervals that produced no variability in the bootstrap estimates.

    • ↵* The exceptional ages for the muriquis have large SEs because of heavy censoring in the data and hence high uncertainty in the exceptional ages.

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    Table S2.

    Estimated means (and SEs in parentheses) of the measures of lifespan equality for each of the main populations analyzed

    Speciesε0lαe0/Ω0g0cv0
    Females
     Sifaka−0.376 (0.0573)0.289 (0.0271)0.173 (0.0155)0.711 (0.0197)1.51 (0.0893)
     Muriqui0.331 (0.151)0.629 (0.0357)0.417 (0.0484)0.471 (0.0479)0.832 (0.081)
     Capuchin0.0682 (0.12)0.496 (0.0528)0.292 (0.0438)0.538 (0.038)0.99 (0.101)
     Baboon0.194 (0.0414)0.55 (0.0205)0.34 (0.0146)0.502 (0.014)0.896 (0.0303)
     Chimpanzee0.0262 (0.0996)0.434 (0.0485)0.3 (0.0323)0.573 (0.0361)1.06 (0.0919)
     Gorilla0.337 (0.111)0.564 (0.0447)0.437 (0.036)0.486 (0.0386)0.883 (0.0752)
     Liberia−0.911 (0.0858)0.0342 (0.00949)0.0578 (0.00768)0.929 (0.0197)2.82 (0.279)
     Hadza0.357 (0.0691)0.6 (0.0295)0.431 (0.0245)0.478 (0.0234)0.852 (0.044)
     Ache0.409 (0.0703)0.609 (0.0301)0.476 (0.0266)0.46 (0.0229)0.819 (0.0428)
     Sweden 1751–17590.345 (0.00201)0.622 (0.000899)0.411 (0.000661)0.475 (0.000716)0.839 (0.00135)
     Sweden 2000–20092.2 (0.00156)0.996 (9.19e-05)0.81 (0.000192)0.079 (0.000139)0.157 (0.000364)
     Japan 20122.26 (0.00148)0.996 (8.35e-05)0.823 (0.000146)0.0745 (0.000124)0.151 (0.000342)
    Males
     Sifaka−0.248 (0.057)0.325 (0.0267)0.231 (0.0179)0.488 (0.0503)0.87 (0.107)
     Muriqui0.244 (0.175)0.653 (0.0328)0.37 (0.0647)0.578 (0.0379)1.09 (0.112)
     Capuchin0.000787 (0.124)0.417 (0.0483)0.295 (0.0479)0.513 (0.0152)0.922 (0.0344)
     Baboon0.159 (0.0455)0.453 (0.0238)0.331 (0.017)0.569 (0.0317)1.05 (0.0819)
     Chimpanzee0.0224 (0.0889)0.378 (0.0443)0.298 (0.0299)0.454 (0.0362)0.816 (0.0666)
     Gorilla0.416 (0.107)0.566 (0.0438)0.451 (0.0344)0.944 (0.023)3.07 (0.316)
     Liberia−0.977 (0.104)0.0241 (0.00803)0.0541 (0.0064)0.506 (0.0209)0.901 (0.0423)
     Hadza0.25 (0.0595)0.58 (0.0284)0.385 (0.0215)0.41 (0.0187)0.717 (0.033)
     Ache0.51 (0.0577)0.706 (0.0254)0.474 (0.0213)0.498 (0.000707)0.883 (0.00139)
     Sweden 1751–17590.274 (0.00194)0.597 (0.000902)0.387 (0.00108)0.0905 (0.000152)0.177 (0.000365)
     Sweden 2000–20092.07 (0.00151)0.995 (9.68e-05)0.791 (0.000191)0.091 (0.000133)0.176 (0.000322)
     Japan 20122.06 (0.00134)0.996 (8.7e-05)0.792 (0.000161)0.686 (0.0197)1.4 (0.0745)
    • The column heads are as follows: ε0, lifespan equality; g0, Gini coefficient; cv0, coefficient of variation; lα, proportion surviving to maturity; e0/Ω0, life expectancy as a proportion of exceptional age (see Box 1 and Materials and Methods for a full description of the measures).

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    Table S3.

    Mammal species used in addition to the six nonhuman primates to estimate the significance of the interspecific correlation between life expectancy and lifespan equality

    Common nameSpeciesFamilyLife expectancy, e0, yLifespan equality, ε0Ref.
    Tundra voleMicrotus oeconomusCricetidae0.790.118(73)
    Yellow-bellied marmotMarmota flaviventrisSciuridae1.79−0.079(74)
    Eastern chipmunkTamias striatusSciuridae5.020.174(75)
    Plains zebraEquus burchelliiEquidae7.950.155(76)
    MooseAlces alcesCervidae7.080.186(77)
    Japanese serowNaemorhedus crispusBovidae4.67−0.057(78)
    GaurBos gaurusBovidae7.900.111(79)
    WolfCanis lupusCanidae4.310.012(80)
    African lionPanthera leoFelidae3.72−0.098(14)
    • All datasets were obtained from the database DATLife (www.demogr.mpg.de/en/laboratories/evolutionary_biodemography_1171/projects/datlife_the_demography_of_aging_across_the_tree_of_life_database_744.htm).

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    Table S4.

    Time periods or years, by population, that were used in the life tables underlying the measures shown in Fig. 4 A and C

    CountryPeriodAge intervalRef.
    For Fig. 4A
     Sweden1751–17591(19)
     Sweden1800–18091(19)
     Sweden1850–18591(19)
     Sweden1900–19091(19)
     Sweden1950–19591(19)
     Sweden2000–20091(19)
     Sweden1925–19341(19)
     England1600–17251(56)
     Trinidad1813–18161(55)
     Ukraine19331(19)
     Liberia1820–18435(17, 18)
     Hadza1985–20001(15)
     Ache1980–19941(16)
     Acculturated hunter-gatherers*——(57)
     Sweden17731(19)
     Iceland18821(19)
     India20131(54)
     Nigeria20131(54)
     Russia20131(54)
     United States20131(54)
     Japan20121(19)
     China20131(54)
    For Fig. 4C
     Iceland18811(19)
     Iceland18831(19)
     Sweden17721(19)
     Sweden17741(19)
     Ukraine19311(19)
     Ukraine19321(19)
     Ukraine19341(19)
     Ukraine19351(19)
    • We used data for 2012 for Japan because we decided to use highly reliable HMD data (19) for this focal population and these data were not available after 2012.

    • ↵* The estimation of the pace and shape measures for acculturated hunter-gatherers was carried out based on the Siler mortality parameter estimates provided by ref. 57.

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    Table 3.

    Descriptive statistics of human populations of hunter-gatherers (Ache and Hadza) and populations from Liberia, Sweden, and Japan

    PopulationSexPerson yearsDeaths
    AcheWomen6,738151
    Men9,368202
    Total16,106353
    HadzaWomen6,218182
    Men6,100227
    Total12,318409
    Liberia, 1820–1843Women1,9731,135
    Men2,318967
    Total4,2912,195
    Sweden, 1751–1759Women8,736,291232,161
    Men7,808,644225,428
    Total16,544,934457,589
    Sweden, 2000–2009Women45,582,428475,035
    Men44,832,800446,825
    Total90,415,228921,860
    Japan, 2012Women64,657,932600,833
    Men61,362,195655,526
    Total126,020,1261,256,359
    • Person years are a combined measure of the number of individuals and the number of years they contributed to the study.

    • View popup
    Table S5.

    Sex-specific patterns of natal dispersal (dispersal from the natal group) and higher-order dispersal (subsequent dispersals after natal) for each nonhuman primate species, as well as the minimum age at which natal dispersal is observed for each sex

    Common nameSexNatal dispersalHigher-order dispersalMinimum age at onset of dispersal behavior, yWeighted average proportion of study groups (G) and nonstudy groups (A) in the estimated total population
    SifakaFYesYes2
    MYesYes0.5G = 0.70, A = 0.30
    Northern muriquiFYesNo4.8
    MNoNo—G = 0.50, A = 0.50
    CapuchinFNoNo7
    MYesYes1.7G = 0.76, A = 0.24
    BaboonFNoNo—
    MYesYes6G = 0.72, A = 0.28
    ChimpanzeeFYesYes9
    MNoNo—G = 0.40, A = 0.60
    GorillaFYesYes6
    MYesNo9G = 0.75, A = 0.25
    • View popup
    Table S6.

    Estimated Siler prior parameters

    FemalesMales
    Speciesb0b1b0b1
    Sifaka−4.3080.102−5.0330.191
    Muriqui−7.4830.129−7.2680.149
    Capuchin−4.3330.169−6.5620.296
    Baboon−4.3560.128−4.9400.216
    Chimpanzee−6.3000.099−6.8310.137
    Gorilla−10.000.207−7.9470.182
    • The Siler mortality model is given by μ(x)=exp(a0−a1x)+c+exp(b0+b1x), where a0, a1, c, b0, and b1 are the mortality parameters. We fixed the first three parameters at a0 = −1, a1 = 0.5, and c = 0 and estimated the additional parameters based on the values provided by Bronikowski et al. (12).

    • View popup
    Table S7.

    Parameters obtained for the simulation of ages at dispersal for the six species of nonhuman primates

    MalesFemales
    NatalHigherNatalHigher
    Speciesα1β1α2β2α1β1α2β2
    Sifaka3.6280.9078.0011.3473.3311.1417.3671.293
    Muriqui————3.4603.720——
    Capuchin2.3390.7344.4930.4612.3390.734——
    Baboon9.0774.9074.1680.693————
    Chimpanzee————8.0002.000——
    Gorilla6.6741.076——0.8880.1812.1230.208
    • The labels “Natal” and “Higher” refer to natal dispersal and higher-order dispersal, respectively.

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Emergence of longevous populations
Fernando Colchero, Roland Rau, Owen R. Jones, Julia A. Barthold, Dalia A. Conde, Adam Lenart, Laszlo Nemeth, Alexander Scheuerlein, Jonas Schoeley, Catalina Torres, Virginia Zarulli, Jeanne Altmann, Diane K. Brockman, Anne M. Bronikowski, Linda M. Fedigan, Anne E. Pusey, Tara S. Stoinski, Karen B. Strier, Annette Baudisch, Susan C. Alberts, James W. Vaupel
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2016, 201612191; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1612191113

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Emergence of longevous populations
Fernando Colchero, Roland Rau, Owen R. Jones, Julia A. Barthold, Dalia A. Conde, Adam Lenart, Laszlo Nemeth, Alexander Scheuerlein, Jonas Schoeley, Catalina Torres, Virginia Zarulli, Jeanne Altmann, Diane K. Brockman, Anne M. Bronikowski, Linda M. Fedigan, Anne E. Pusey, Tara S. Stoinski, Karen B. Strier, Annette Baudisch, Susan C. Alberts, James W. Vaupel
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Nov 2016, 201612191; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1612191113
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