Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations
Edited by George N. Somero, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, and approved November 28, 2012 (received for review June 28, 2012)
Abstract
A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.
Acknowledgments
We thank L. Brotz, S. Gelcich, M. Schildhauer, J. Regetz, C. Hollyhead, C. Mills, M. Dawson, and T. Richardson for their contributions to the Global Jellyfish Project sponsored by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS); M. Gibbons and A. Richardson for sharing thoughts and data; and the collaborative efforts of Japanese, Australian (Fisheries Victoria), Canadian, Peruvian, Namibian, Norwegian (Institute of Marine Research), Russian (TINRO, The Russian Pacific Federal Fisheries Research Institute, Vladivostok), and United States (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) fisheries programs that enhanced our global jellyfish analysis. Funding for NCEAS comes from National Science Foundation Grant DEB-94-21535, the University of California at Santa Barbara, and the State of California. This work was supported in part by National Science Foundation Grants OCE 1030149 (to R.H.C.) and CMG 0934727 (to M.B.D.); Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica Argentina Grant FONCyT PICT 1553 (to H.W.M.); and Slovenian Research Program P1-0237 (to A.M.).
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Cover image: Pictured is a cerebral capillary (green) of a mouse lacking the glucocorticoid anti-inflammatory messenger, annexin A1 (ANXA1), with deposition of immunoglobulin G (red) outside the blood vessel indicating vessel leakage. Enrico Cristante et al. found that deleting the ANXA1 gene in mice led to increased blood–brain barrier permeability due to disrupted tight junctions between endothelial cells. The loss of blood–brain barrier integrity was reminiscent of that in early multiple sclerosis pathology, and the authors suggest that ANXA1 could potentially have applications in correcting blood–brain barrier function and treating multiple sclerosis. See the Feature Article by Cristante et al. on pages 832–841. Image courtesy of Simon McArthur and Egle Solito.
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Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.
Submission history
Published online: December 31, 2012
Published in issue: January 15, 2013
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Acknowledgments
We thank L. Brotz, S. Gelcich, M. Schildhauer, J. Regetz, C. Hollyhead, C. Mills, M. Dawson, and T. Richardson for their contributions to the Global Jellyfish Project sponsored by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS); M. Gibbons and A. Richardson for sharing thoughts and data; and the collaborative efforts of Japanese, Australian (Fisheries Victoria), Canadian, Peruvian, Namibian, Norwegian (Institute of Marine Research), Russian (TINRO, The Russian Pacific Federal Fisheries Research Institute, Vladivostok), and United States (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) fisheries programs that enhanced our global jellyfish analysis. Funding for NCEAS comes from National Science Foundation Grant DEB-94-21535, the University of California at Santa Barbara, and the State of California. This work was supported in part by National Science Foundation Grants OCE 1030149 (to R.H.C.) and CMG 0934727 (to M.B.D.); Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica Argentina Grant FONCyT PICT 1553 (to H.W.M.); and Slovenian Research Program P1-0237 (to A.M.).
Notes
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
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Competing Interests
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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