Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Edited by B. L. Turner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, and approved July 10, 2017 (received for review January 31, 2017)
Significance
Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.
Abstract
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41530528 and 41561134016; 111 Project Grant B14001; and the National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China. We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). S.A. was supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. B.L. and Y.Z. were supported by National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China Grant 2013AA102404, the 111 Project Grant B16026 and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions. C.M. was supported by MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project Grant 01LN1317A, funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. P.C., I.A.J., and J.P. were supported by European Research Council Synergy Grant ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P. P.C. was also supported from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND). F.E. was supported by German Science Foundation Project EW 119/5-1 and by the Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant 2815ERA01J.
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Published online: August 15, 2017
Published in issue: August 29, 2017
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41530528 and 41561134016; 111 Project Grant B14001; and the National Youth Top-Notch Talent Support Program in China. We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). S.A. was supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. B.L. and Y.Z. were supported by National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China Grant 2013AA102404, the 111 Project Grant B16026 and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions. C.M. was supported by MACMIT (climate mitigation in agricultural production systems through sustainable resource management) Project Grant 01LN1317A, funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. P.C., I.A.J., and J.P. were supported by European Research Council Synergy Grant ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P. P.C. was also supported from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) Convergence Lab Changement climatique et usage des terres (CLAND). F.E. was supported by German Science Foundation Project EW 119/5-1 and by the Joint Programming Initiative for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security Project through German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture Grant 2815ERA01J.
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This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
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The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
114 (35) 9326-9331,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114
(2017).
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