No effect of birth order on adult risk taking
Edited by Brent W. Roberts, University of Illinois, Champaign, and accepted by Editorial Board Member Renée Baillargeon February 14, 2019 (received for review August 23, 2018)
Significance
Does birth order shape people’s propensity to take risks? For decades, personality psychologists have believed that birth order influences personality, but recent evidence has accumulated to indicate that this is not the case. The effect of birth order on risk taking is less clear. We searched for evidence in survey, experimental, and real-world data, analyzing self-reports, incentivized risky decisions, and consequential life choices. The findings point unanimously in the same direction: We found no birth-order effects on risk taking in adulthood.
Abstract
Does birth order shape people’s propensity to take risks? Evidence is mixed. We used a three-pronged approach to investigate birth-order effects on risk taking. First, we examined the propensity to take risks as measured by a self-report questionnaire administered in the German Socio-Economic Panel, one of the largest and most comprehensive household surveys. Second, we drew on data from the Basel–Berlin Risk Study, one of the most exhaustive attempts to measure risk preference. This study administered 39 risk-taking measures, including a set of incentivized behavioral tasks. Finally, we considered the possibility that birth-order differences in risk taking are not reflected in survey responses and laboratory studies. We thus examined another source of behavioral data: the risky life decision to become an explorer or a revolutionary. Findings from these three qualitatively different sources of data and analytic methods point unanimously in the same direction: We found no birth-order effects on risk taking.
Data Availability
Data deposition: The scripts for the first analysis have been deposited in the Open Science Framework, osf.io/9ahxk. The data and scripts for the second and third analyses have been deposited in the Open Science Framework, osf.io/5nj8s and osf.io/w3zmr, respectively.
Acknowledgments
We thank Susannah Goss for editing the manuscript. We also thank Jill de Ron, Max Rank, Amanda Barreiro, and Iro Eleftheriadou for research assistance.
Supporting Information
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© 2019. Published under the PNAS license.
Data Availability
Data deposition: The scripts for the first analysis have been deposited in the Open Science Framework, osf.io/9ahxk. The data and scripts for the second and third analyses have been deposited in the Open Science Framework, osf.io/5nj8s and osf.io/w3zmr, respectively.
Submission history
Published online: March 11, 2019
Published in issue: March 26, 2019
Keywords
Acknowledgments
We thank Susannah Goss for editing the manuscript. We also thank Jill de Ron, Max Rank, Amanda Barreiro, and Iro Eleftheriadou for research assistance.
Notes
This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. B.W.R. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.
Authors
Competing Interests
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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