Table 1.

NLSY97 expectation questions, and comparisons with actual outcomes

What is the percent chance that you willnCorrelation (γ) with observed future outcomeMean probability (1997), %Observed future outcome rate, %
Be a student in a regular school a year from now?3,1600.64***92.579.6
Have received a high school diploma by the time you turn 20?3,0770.60***94.592.0
If you are in school a year from now, […] be working for pay more than 20 h a week?2,4920.29***57.727.2
If you are not in school a year from now, […] be working for pay more than 20 h a week?6100.31***80.543.9
Become pregnant within 1 y from now? (female)8440.37***8.920.1
Get someone pregnant within the next year? (male)1,5530.35***9.47.9
Become the parent of a baby sometime between now and when you turn 20? (female)1,3680.38***16.025.7
Become the parent of a baby sometime between now and when you turn 20? (male)1,3560.27***19.113.4
Be arrested, whether rightly or wrongly, at least once in the next year?3,1410.41***10.38.2
Serve time in jail or prison between now and when you turn 20?3,3000.39***5.42.8
Die from any cause (crime, illness, accident, and so on) in the next year?3,165n.s.18.70.1
Die from any cause (crime, illness, accident, and so on) between now and when you turn 20?3,169n.s.20.30.5
  • n.s., not significant. Reprinted from ref. 25, with permission from Elsevier.

  • *** P < 0.001.