Table 1.

Summary of extreme event analysis

EventObs trend∆ magnitude from trend∆ return interval from trendGCM-Obs comparison*GCM Historical trends∆ return interval from forcing
Trend P < 0.05∆mag > 0>0 and trend P < 0.05Return ratio > 1>1 and trend P < 0.05A-D P > 0.05Trend fraction > 50%>50% and A-D P > 0.05Trend fraction P < 0.05Return ratio > 1>1 and A-D P > 0.05
Peak summer monthly temperature0.790.970.780.970.780.710.810.580.640.830.59
Hottest day of the year0.410.820.400.830.400.830.820.690.730.850.70
Annual precipitation0.360.420.140.420.140.550.540.320.340.570.32
Wettest 5-d period of the year0.180.580.120.590.130.800.630.510.060.410.33
  • Reported value is the area-weighted fraction of available observations (calculated using the median grid point value, as illustrated in Fig. 1). Obs, observations.

  • * Comparison of GCM and observations using A-D test.

  • Where >50% of GCM realizations agree with the observed sign of trend, and P value of trend fraction is <0.05.