Table 1.

Projected extinction risk by 2100 based on observations and predictions

Expected extinction risk>50% probability of extinctionThreatened with extinction
MethodAllObservedPredictedAllObservedPredictedAllObservedPredicted
Estimate derived from values given in each study0.1120.1470.0670.0690.1200.0190.2910.3180.076
Estimate obtained by averaging across impact types0.1160.1580.0610.0730.1320.0350.2980.3330.204
Estimate obtained by averaging across taxa0.1040.1400.0610.0510.1040.0490.2960.3290.375
Estimate obtained by spatially averaging across the globe0.1180.1390.1030.0000.0020.0000.6200.6480.600
  • Expected extinction risk is based on the β-distribution of observed or predicted extinction risks (npredicted = 188; nobserved = 130). Taxa categorized as threatened were those taxa exceeding a modeled extinction risk by 2100 of 0.09. IUCN categories: CR, critically endangered; EN, endangered; VU, vulnerable.