Table 1.

Projected extinction risk by 2100 based on observations and predictions

Expected extinction risk>50% probability of extinctionThreatened with extinction
Estimate derived from values given in each study0.1120.1470.0670.0690.1200.0190.2910.3180.076
Estimate obtained by averaging across impact types0.1160.1580.0610.0730.1320.0350.2980.3330.204
Estimate obtained by averaging across taxa0.1040.1400.0610.0510.1040.0490.2960.3290.375
Estimate obtained by spatially averaging across the globe0.1180.1390.1030.0000.0020.0000.6200.6480.600
  • Expected extinction risk is based on the β-distribution of observed or predicted extinction risks (npredicted = 188; nobserved = 130). Taxa categorized as threatened were those taxa exceeding a modeled extinction risk by 2100 of 0.09. IUCN categories: CR, critically endangered; EN, endangered; VU, vulnerable.