Table S7.

Results from ABC-RF model selection, ran under eight different combinations of demographic parameters

Ancestral NeBottleneckIntrogressionChoice 1Posterior probability ± SDPrior error ± SD
ExpansionBottleneckYES10/100.868 ± 0.0120.357 ± 0.0006
ExpansionBottleneckNO10/100.817 ± 0.0130.233 ± 0.0007
ExpansionConstant NeYES10/100.889 ± 0.0150.386 ± 0.0011
ExpansionConstant NeNO10/100.797 ± 0.0180.275 ± 0.0008
Constant NeBottleneckYES10/100.939 ± 0.0120.356 ± 0.0005
Constant NeBottleneckNO10/100.585 ± 0.0240.252 ± 0.0006
Constant NeConstant NeYES10/100.927 ± 0.0100.354 ± 0.0001
Constant NeConstant NeNO10/100.564 ± 0.0250.290 ± 0.0010
  • Constant ancestral Ne vs. demographic expansion in the ancestral population; constant Ne vs. bottlenecks at the time of invasion, and with or without secondary introgression between the two Baltic lineages. Choice 1 represent the number of independent random forest iterations that identified model 1 as the winner.