Table 2.

Simulated mean number of ill people (cumulative incidence per 100) and for TAP, the number of antiviral courses required for various interventions and R 0

InterventionR0 = 1.6R0 = 1.9R0 = 2.1R0 = 2.4
Baseline (no intervention)32.643.548.553.7
Unlimited TAP (no. of courses)* 0.06 (2.8 M)4.3 (182 M)12.2 (418 M)19.3 (530 M)
Dynamic vaccination (one-dose regimen) , 0.717.730.141.1
Dynamic child-first vaccination , 0.042.816.335.3
Dynamic vaccination (two-dose regimen) , § 3.233.841.148.5
Dynamic child-first vaccination , § 0.925.137.247.3
School closure 1.029.337.946.4
Local social distancing 25.139.244.650.3
Travel restrictions during entire simulation 32.844.048.954.1
Local social distancing and travel restictions , 19.639.344.750.5
TAP,* school closure,** and social distancing** 0.02 (0.6 M)0.07 (1.6 M)0.14 (3.3 M)2.8 †† (20 M)
Dynamic vaccination, , social distancing, travel restrictions,¶‖ and school closure**0.040.20.64.5
TAP,* dynamic vaccination, , social distancing, travel restrictions,¶‖ and school closure**0.02 (0.3 M)0.03 (0.7 M)0.06 (1.4 M)0.1 (3.0 M)
Dynamic child-first vaccination, , social distancing, s travel restrictions, , and school closure** 0.020.20.97.7
  • M, million.

  • *60% TAP, 7 days after pandemic alert, antiviral supply of 20 M courses unless stated.

  • 10 million doses of a low-efficacy vaccine (single-dose regimen) per week.

  • Intervention continues for 25 weeks, beginning such that the first individuals treated develop an immune response on the date of the first U.S. introduction.

  • §10 million doses of a high-efficacy vaccine (two-dose regimen) per week.

  • Intervention starting 7 days after pandemic alert.

  • Reduction in long-distance travel, to 10% of normal frequency.

  • **Intervention starting 14 days after pandemic alert.

  • ††Exhausted the available supply of 20 M antiviral courses.