Table 1.

Association between malaria cases and dipole mode index (DMI), NINO3 SST anomaly (NINO3), and rainfall: Effect estimates and thresholds

DistrictHospitalIn-/outpatientDMI (lag 3–4 months)NINO3 (lag 1–2 months)Rainfall (lag 2–3 months)
% change (95% CI)aThreshold (95% CI)% change (95% CI)aThreshold (95% CI)% change (95% CI)aThreshold (mm) (95% CI)
NandiKapsabetIn17.9 (13.7, 22.4)0.7 (0.5, 0.8)10.7 (8.2, 13.2)130 (120, 140)
Out9.6 (6.8, 12.4)0.6 (0.5, 0.4)2.9 (2.0, 3.9)40 (30, 60)
MosoriotOut3.9 (1.7, 6.1)−0.4 (−0.5, −0.3)6.0 (4.1, 8.0)100 (90, 110)
ChepteritOut6.6 (3.3, 10.1)0.5 (0.4, 0.6)102.7 (34.4, 205.7)3.5 (3.4, -)6.1 (4.6, 7.6)90 (80, 100)
KisiiKisiiIn15.0 (10.9, 19.4)0.7 (0.6, 0.8)4.9 (3.6, 6.2)80 (70, 90)
Out17.6 (13.0, 22.4)1.2 (1.1, 1.3)1.4 (0.5, 2.2)60 (50, 70)
KeumbuOut
IyabeOut3.4 (1.8, 5.0)L2.0 (0.7, 3.4)L
ItierioOut14.3 (8.0, 20.9)1.0 (0.9, 1.1)3.4 (1.9, 5.0)120 (100, 130)
  • L, linear association between exposure and the number of cases.

  • aPercent change in the number of malaria cases for each 0.1, 0.1, and 10 mm increase in DMI, NINO3, and rainfall above threshold.