Table 1.

Predicted changes in annual growth rate of rice yield if observed weather trends at the end of the 20th century had not occurred at each site

Predicted change in yield growth (kg·ha−1·y−1) resulting from elimination of trendNet impact relative to mean observed yield for site/season (%·y−1)Observed national yield growth rate (annual, not seasonal; %·y−1)
Season and siteTminTmaxRadiationNet impact
High yielding
 China (Jinhua)0.00.00.00.00.001.48
 India (Aduthurai)6.3−12.64.1−2.2−0.042.05
 Indonesia (Sukamandi)12.00.00.312.30.221.13
 Philippines (Maligaya)21.80.0−2.319.50.311.51
 Thailand (Suphan Buri)11.70.00.011.70.231.55
 Vietnam (Hanoi)16.60.06.222.80.383.18
 Vietnam (Omon)−9.00.0−10.7−19.8−0.333.18
Low yielding
 China (Jinhua)9.8−14.00.0−4.1−0.071.48
 India (Aduthurai)7.2−10.70.0−3.5−0.072.05
 Indonesia (Sukamandi)7.10.00.07.10.171.13
 Philippines (Maligaya)12.50.00.012.50.321.51
 Thailand (Suphan Buri)0.0−10.9−6.8−17.7−0.351.55
 Vietnam (Hanoi)0.00.0−11.8−11.8−0.223.18
 Vietnam (Omon)−16.9−13.70.0−30.6−0.763.18
  • Second through fourth columns show annual changes in yield growth because of elimination of trends in individual weather variables summed across rice-growth phases. Fifth column (net impact) shows sum of these changes. Sixth column shows net impact expressed as change in annual growth rate. Seventh column shows observed growth rate in rice yield at national level (not site level) for both seasons combined (seasonal data were not available). Time periods for estimating trends: temperature and observed yield growth rate, 1979–2004; radiation, 1983–2004.