Table 3.

Alternative climate parameters and controls

Model 10: outbreak 25+Model 11: outbreak 25+Model 12: outbreak 25+Model 13: outbreak 25+
Temperature deviation−3.917−12.631−18.977−130.35
(10.146)(12.144)(12.899)(113.69)
Temperature deviationt−13.112−6.180
(12.635)(11.517)
Precipitation deviation−0.2380.509
(0.519)(0.578)
Precipitation deviationt−1−0.792−0.169
(1.674)(0.915)
Political exclusiont−10.760*0.820**0.774*0.823**
(0.409)(0.396)(0.399)(0.399)
Temperature deviation × political exclusiont−111.519
(12.382)
Ln GDP capitat−1−0.482**−0.547**−0.532**−0.557**
(0.236)(0.263)(0.243)(0.265)
Temperature deviation × ln GDP capitat−1−15.932
(14.559)
Post-Cold War0.893**1.017**1.013**1.066**
(0.381)(0.423)(0.407)(0.418)
Intrastate conflictt−1−0.726−0.690−0.718−0.690
(0.552)(0.549)(0.555)(0.528)
Intercept−0.1220.2950.1880.327
(1.768)(1.978)(1.794)(1.923)
Pseudo R20.050.050.050.05
Civil war observations45454545
Observations866867867867
  • Data are logit regression estimates; robust SEs clustered on countries in parentheses. The climate parameters measure deviation from previous year's estimate (model 10) and deviation from the long-tem normal annual level (models 11–13). Ln indicates natural logarithm of values.

  • **P < 0.05, *P < 0.1.