Wisdom-of-crowd aggregation | ||||

Question | True value | Arithmetic mean | Geometric mean | Median |

1. Population density of Switzerland | 184 | 2,644 (+1,337.2%) | 132 (−28.1%) | 130 (−29.3%) |

2. Border length, Switzerland/Italy | 734 | 1,959 (+166.9%) | 338 (−54%) | 300 (−59.1%) |

3. New immigrants to Zurich | 10,067 | 26,773 (+165.9%) | 8,178 (−18.8%) | 10,000 (−0.7%) |

4. Murders, 2006, Switzerland | 198 | 838 (+323.2%) | 174 (−11.9%) | 170 (−14.1%) |

5. Rapes, 2006, Switzerland | 639 | 1,017 (+59.1%) | 285 (−55.4%) | 250 (−60.9%) |

6. Assaults, 2006, Switzerland | 9,272 | 135,051 (+1,356.5%) | 6,039 (−34.9%) | 4,000 (−56.9%) |

The aggregate measures arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and median are computed on the set of all first estimates regardless of the information condition. Values in parentheses are deviations from the true value as percentages.