Parameter | Southern area | Northern area | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | 95% ci | Estimate | 95% ci | |
α_{const} | 2.73 | {2.72, 2.74} | 2.13 | {2.12, 2.15} |
ᾱ | 2.58 | {2.32, 2.84} | 1.93 | {1.59, 2.27} |
σ_{α}^{2} | 1.12 | {0.79, 1.59} | 0.63 | {0.48, 0.84} |
β | −0.26 | {−0.31, −0.21} | −0.22 | {−0.26, −0.17} |
γ | −0.06 | {−0.09, −0.02} | −0.07 | {−0.11, −0.04} |
c | −0.58 | {−0.91, −0.26} | −0.39 | {−0.71, −0.06} |
λ | Fixed at 0.4 | N/A |
A Poisson error was assumed for the counts of the 0- and 1-groups. Annual adult survival, λ, was fixed at 0.4. The reproductive parameter, α, was either assumed to be constant (α_{const}) or randomly distributed with variance, σ_{α}^{2}, around a time-invariant mean, ᾱ. The parameters for intracohort (β) and intercohort (γ) density dependence and basal survival (c) were assumed to be time invariant. All parameters were assigned noninformative priors (22, 34). Estimates and 95% ci were based on 100,000 iterations of the Gibbs sampler after a burn-in of 10,000 iterations. N/A, not applicable.