Table 1.

Categories of abrupt changes in the CMIP5 model ensemble

CategoryTypeRegionModels and scenarios
I (switch)1. sea ice bimodalitySouthern OceanBCC-CSM1-1 (all), BCC-CSM1-1-m (all), IPSL-CM5A-LR (all), GFDL-CM3 (all)
II (forced2. sea ice bimodalitySouthern OceanGISS-E2-H (rcp45), GISS-E2-R (rcp45, rcp85)
transition to switch)3. abrupt change in productivityIndian Ocean offIPSL-CM5A-LR (rcp85)
East Africa
III (rapid change to new state)4. winter sea ice collapseArctic OceanMPI-ESM-LR (rcp85), CSIRO-MK3-6-0 (rcp85), CNRM-CM5 (rcp85), CCSM4 (rcp85), HadGEM2-ES (rcp8.5)
5. abrupt sea ice decreaseregions of high-latitude oceansCanESM2 (rcp85), CMCC-CESM (rcp85), FGOALS-G2 (rcp85), MRI-CGCM3 (all rcp)
6. abrupt increase in sea iceregion in Southern OceanMRI-CGCM3 (rcp45)
7. local collapse of convectionLabrador Sea, North AtlanticGISS-E2-R (all rcp), GFDL-ESM2G (his), CESM1-CAM (rcp85), MIROC5 (rcp26), CSIRO-MK3-6-0 (rcp26)
8. total collapse of convectionNorth AtlanticFIO-ESM (all rcp)
9. permafrost collapseArcticHADGEM2-ES (rcp85)
10. abrupt snow meltTibetan PlateauGISS-E2-H (rcp45, rcp85), GISS-E2-R (rcp45, rcp85)
11. abrupt change in vegetationEastern SahelBNU-ESM (all rcp)
IV (gradual change to new state)12. boreal forest expansionArcticHadGEM2-ES (rcp85)
13. forest diebackAmazonHadGEM2-ES (rcp85), IPSL-CM5A-LR (rcp85)
  • Four categories are listed by type (column 2), region (column 3), and climate model and scenario (column 4). Fig. 2 provides examples of abrupt shifts for each category.