Table S1.

Total US municipalities becoming locked in so that 25, 50, or 100% of their 2010 population-weighted area will fall below the future committed high tide line, making no assumption about WAIS collapse (baseline case)

Emissions end dateEmissions scenarioCumulative emissions, GtCCommitted warming, °C (CI)Committed SLR, m (CI)Committed US municipalities–baseline case for WAIS
With 25% thresholdWith 50% thresholdWith 100% threshold
All municipalities (CI)>100,000 residents (CI)All municipalities (CI)>100,000 residents (CI)All municipalities (CI)>100,000 residents (CI)
2015Historical5600.8 (0.5–1.0)1.6 (0.0–3.7)675 (0–1,261)14 (0–25)414 (0–942)6 (0–17)14 (0–199)0 (0–2)
2015+Historical + EIEI8001.0 (0.7–1.3)2.2 (0.4–4.0)846 (165–1,335)17 (2–26)604 (92–1,011)8 (2–19)38 (8–283)0 (0–3)
2050RCP 2.68021.1 (0.8–1.4)2.3 (0.6–4.1)889 (227–1,347)15 (2–26)636 (119–1,028)9 (2–19)50 (8–283)0 (0–3)
RCP 4.59401.3 (0.9–1.6)2.7 (0.9–4.4)989 (361–1,396)19 (2–26)699 (208–1,082)11 (2–19)84 (11–330)0 (0–3)
RCP 6.09131.2 (0.9–1.6)2.6 (0.8–4.3)973 (341–1,387)18 (2–26)682 (190–1,071)11 (2–19)83 (9–315)0 (0–3)
RCP 8.511101.5 (1.1–1.9)3.1 (1.3–5.0)1,121 (528–1,499)22 (7–27)809 (335–1,175)16 (2–21)128 (11–384)0 (0–4)
2100RCP 2.68401.1 (0.8–1.5)2.4 (0.7–4.2)919 (273–1,362)15 (2–26)655 (140–1,043)11 (2–19)83 (8–283)0 (0–3)
RCP 4.51,2661.7 (1.2–2.2)3.6 (1.7–5.6)1,232 (713–1,575)24 (15–28)911 (460–1,272)17 (7–22)199 (14–470)2 (0–5)
RCP 6.01,6782.3 (1.6–2.9)5.0 (2.7–7.2)1,490 (1,057–1,826)27 (21–42)1,176 (756–1,479)21 (15–24)386 (126–683)4 (0–7)
RCP 8.52,4303.3 (2.3–4.2)7.1 (4.3–9.9)1,894 (1,504–2,176)44 (27–53)1,544 (1,185–1,812)25 (21–35)741 (411–1,021)8 (4–13)
Not applicableFixed warmingNot applicable1.52.9 (1.6–4.2)1,042 (612–1,369)21 (12–26)744 (372–1,052)15 (4–19)103 (14–284)0 (0–3)
2.04.7 (3.0–6.3)1,441 (1,054–1,736)27 (21–36)1,119 (748–1,392)20 (15–23)353 (121–610)4 (0–6)
3.06.4 (4.7–8.2)1,770 (1,460–2,024)39 (27–46)1,415 (1,127–1,677)23 (20–30)653 (355–869)6 (4–11)
4.08.9 (6.9–10.8)2,101 (1,841–2,339)49 (42–54)1,748 (1,499–1,938)34 (25–37)943 (714–1,134)12 (7–14)
  • Projections assume zero additional emissions after emissions end dates listed, except for the historical + EIEI scenario. EIEI is the expected future emissions implied by existing energy infrastructure, as estimated in ref. 23. The years shown relate to emissions and associated commitments, not to the timing of ensuing warming or SLR. CIs are shown spanning 17th–83rd percentiles, the 66% (“likely”) range. Committed warming is in reference to the preindustrial global mean temperature, and committed SLR is in reference to global mean sea level in 1992. Note: the relationship between committed warming and committed SLR is different for fixed warming vs. all other scenarios, because all other scenarios involve distributions of warming amounts, and warming translates nonlinearly into SLR.